New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 21, 2026
New Mexico State heads to Huntsville on Wednesday to face Sam Houston at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. Kickoff is at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN2. The Aggies are 2-4 overall and 1-1 in Conference USA, while the Bearkats sit at 1-5 and have lost both conference games. Neither side comes in playing particularly well. New Mexico State was beaten 22-3 by Florida International in its latest outing. Sam Houston had a rough night too, losing 16-3 to Western Kentucky. Make smarter bets with our free NCAAF picks.
New Mexico State Aggies Need More From Their Offense
The Aggies have had a hard time finding points lately. New Mexico State managed just three against Florida International, a sharp change from the 34 scored in its win over Western Kentucky the week before. That victory is the only one in the past four games. In the other three, the Aggies failed to reach 20 points. The ground game has given New Mexico State something to work with, but the passing attack has been less dependable. The Aggies need to finish more drives.
James Jones has been the most consistent part of the offense. He's rushed for 599 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards each time he carries the ball. Quarterback Trey Hedden has 906 passing yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions. TK King has been his leading target, catching 20 passes for 286 yards and three scores. New Mexico State also has some players making things happen on defense. Nick Session leads the way with 50 tackles and two interceptions, while Gabe Peterson has recorded 4.5 sacks.
Injuries: Ilya Uvaydov, R. Burton and R. Lotten are questionable.
Sam Houston Bearkats Have Lost Three Straight
Sam Houston's offense has been stuck lately, too. The Bearkats scored only three points against Western Kentucky last Wednesday after managing the same total in a 35-3 loss to Liberty. Those defeats followed a 49-14 loss to Texas Tech, leaving Sam Houston on a three-game losing streak. The 59-0 win over Nicholls showed what the Bearkats can do when things click, but there hasn't been much to celebrate since. The team needs to turn possessions into points.
Landyn Locke has thrown for 1,418 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He's been able to put up numbers through the air, even with the team's recent struggles. Chris Reed has 289 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while Grady O'Neill has 28 catches for 260 yards. Running back Alton McCaskill leads the ground game with 211 yards and one touchdown. On the other side of the ball, Dean Ford has 38 tackles, and Elijah Groves has 2.5 sacks.
Injuries: B. Kuhl is out, while Max Whisner is questionable.
Key To The Game
Both teams are coming off games in which they scored only three points. New Mexico State has done more on the ground, while Sam Houston has gotten more passing yards from Locke. The Aggies need to protect the football, and the Bearkats need to find a way to finish drives.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Pick
- New Mexico State -2.5
New Mexico State hasn't been consistent, but Jones gives the Aggies a reliable way to move the ball. He's averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has rushed for 599 yards. Sam Houston has lost three straight games, scoring just six points across its last two. Locke can make plays through the air, but the Bearkats haven't turned those chances into points lately. The Aggies look ready to cover the spread.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Over/Under Pick
- Under 47.5
Neither offense has looked sharp in its most recent games. New Mexico State scored only three points against Florida International, and Sam Houston put up three against both Western Kentucky and Liberty. The Aggies have been held under 20 points in three of their past four outings. Sam Houston has been shut down in back-to-back conference games. With both sides struggling to finish drives, under 47.5 is the pick here.