New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction and Picks - December 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC The New Mexico Lobos (9-3) and the Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) head to Chase Field in Phoenix this Friday for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. This matchup features a fascinating contrast of programs: Minnesota is looking to maintain the nation’s longest active bowl winning streak (8 games), while New Mexico is making its first bowl appearance under first-year head coach Jason Eck. The Lobos have been one of the biggest surprises in the Group of Five, having already proven they can compete with the Big Ten after playing Michigan close and thumping UCLA earlier this season. Minnesota, meanwhile, is aiming for an eighth win to cap off a season defined by a signature victory over rival Wisconsin to reclaim Paul Bunyan's Axe.
The Bowl Games are starting to light up the college football world and to help you out you need to check out all of our free college football predictions.
New Mexico Lobos Bringing Mountain West Firepower
The Lobos enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the country, having won six straight games to close the regular season. The offense is led by quarterback Jack Layne, who has thrown for 2,398 yards and 13 touchdowns. While Layne provides stability, the engine of this team is a two-headed rushing attack featuring Damon Bankston (578 yards) and DJ McKinney (454 yards). New Mexico's offense has been highly efficient, ranking 45th nationally in $Dropback$ $EPA$ per play, which could pose a challenge for a Minnesota secondary that has been hit or miss this season.
On the defensive side, the Lobos are anchored by the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Jaxton Eck, who leads the team with 108 tackles. New Mexico's pass rush is also formidable, with Keyshawn James-Newby racking up 8 sacks on the season. For the Lobos to pull the upset, they must avoid the turnovers that haunted them in their three losses—New Mexico ranks 124th in giveaways per game, a dangerous stat against a disciplined Big Ten opponent.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers Relying on Bowl Pedigree
Under P.J. Fleck, Minnesota has become a postseason juggernaut, going a perfect 6-0 straight-up in bowl games. The Gophers' identity remains rooted in a physical ground game and a ball-control offense. Running back Darius Taylor is the focal point; though he missed time this season, he still managed 554 yards and is known for "turning it up" in bowl settings. Quarterback Drake Lindsey has been a steady game manager, throwing just 6 interceptions all year, helping the Gophers rank 4th nationally in giveaways allowed.
Minnesota's defense is the backbone of the team, led by defensive lineman Anthony Smith, who has been a disruptive force with 10.5 sacks. The secondary features breakout star John Nestor, who is coming off a historic performance against Wisconsin with two interceptions and a fumble recovery. The Gophers' strategy will likely be to shorten the game, minimize possessions, and force New Mexico into long third-down situations where Smith and the pass rush can tee off.
Expert Picks and Predictions
New Mexico vs Minnesota ATS Pick
New Mexico +1.5
I am taking the points with the Lobos in what I expect to be a tightly contested battle. While P.J. Fleck’s bowl record is legendary, this New Mexico team is playing with a level of confidence and "nothing to lose" energy that makes them a dangerous underdog. The Lobos have already shown they can punch up against Power Four competition this season, and their advanced statistical profile actually favors them over the Gophers in several key categories. With the game being played in Phoenix—a much shorter trip for Lobos fans—I expect a pro-New Mexico crowd to help carry them to a cover, if not an outright win.
Total Pick
Under 49.5
I am leaning toward the Under for this Friday afternoon showdown. Both teams possess top-50 scoring defenses and prefer to move the ball on the ground, which keeps the clock running. Minnesota’s offense has struggled to find explosive plays all year, ranking 128th in total offense, while New Mexico’s defense is specifically designed to take away the run. P.J. Fleck is a master of the "slow-down" game in bowl season, and I expect a low-possession affair where points are at a premium. A final score in the 23-20 range feels just right for this matchup.
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