New Mexico vs. UNLV, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 1, 2025

In a Mountain West Conference game in Sun City on Saturday afternoon, UNLV plays host to New Mexico. After losing two in a row, New Mexico (5-3, 2-2 MWC) has won their last two games and UNLV (6-1, 2-1 MWC) suffered its first loss of the season in its last game, giving up 56 points. Here in this New Mexico vs. UNLV prediction, you can check out the matchup and full score info. If you are struggling to pick winners, you've come to the right place. We have the strongest NCAAF Predictions.

UNLV comes into this conference matchup as a 4-point favorite with the total sitting at 61.

New Mexico Kills it on the Ground in Win

In their last game, New Mexico won their second in a row, where it rushed for 224 yards in a 33-14 home win over Utah State. They outgained them 407 yards to 306 yards, forced the only turnover in the game, and outscored the Aggies 26-7 in the first half. Jack Layne was 17/22 with 183 yards with a TD. Three players rushed for at least 49 yards, led by Damon Bankston with 84 yards and a TD, and Cade Keith had 104 receiving yards and a score. The Lobos covered as a 3-point favorite after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games.

New Mexico ranks near the middle of the pack in terms of scoring (29 ppg) and points against (24.8 ppg,) and their offense is led by their run game, which ranks 66th in the nation.

Layne (1,598 yards 9 TD 8 INT) has two TD and two INT in the last three games, where the Lobos have relied on the ground game. Bankston (410 yards 4 TD) is one of three players that has at least 293 rushing yards and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Dorian Thomas and Keagan Johnson have combined for 838 receiving yards and six TDs. UNM will face a UNLV defense that ranks 80th against the pass and only 125th against the run.

Injuries

• The Lobos have a few players questionable, but none are key players.

UNLV Falters in Second Half

In their last game, UNLV was on the road in a bad 56-31 loss to Boise State, where they were outscored 28-7 in the second half. While the Rebels racked up 476 yards and forced two turnovers and only committed one, they gave up 558 yards, allowed the Broncos to convert six of 11 third downs, and gave up 294 rushing yards. Anthony Colandrea passed for 215 yards with two TD and a pick, also rushing for 87 yards and a score. Jaylon Glover rushed for 112 yards and a TD, and DeAngelo Irvin Jr. had 90 receiving yards. UNLV failed to cover as a 13-point underdog, and they have not covered the spread in their last two games after doing so for three in a row.

Like UNM, UNLV is also led by their ground game, and while they ranks 17th in the nation, averaging 37.1 ppg, it only ranks 125th in giving up an average of 33.4 ppg.

Colandrea (1,618 yards 12 TD 4 INT) has four TD and one INT in the last four games and is also the second leading rusher (410 yards 7 TD). Jai'Den Thomas (615 yards 7 TD) is the lead rusher and had averaged over 100 rushing yards per game before only rushing for 38 yards on 11 carries in the last one. Jalen Bradley leads the team with 528 receiving yards, with the next leading target with 251 yards. The Rebels will face a UNM defense that ranks 90th in the nation against the pass and 28th against the run.

• No significant injuries of note for UNLV.

New Mexico vs. UNLV Pick

New Mexico vs. UNLV

• New Mexico  +3 (+4 Units)

UNLV is coming off their first loss of the season, and it was a bad loss, giving up 56 points. New Mexico has won their last two games and lost its previous two games. They have played two of the same opponents, as New Mexico crushed UCLA on the road and UNLV beat them by seven points at home, and against Boise State, UNM lost by 16 point,s and the Rebels lost by 25 points. The Lobos have a good ground game and will face a UNLV run defense that ranks 125th in the nation and has given up over 700 rushing yards in their last two games.

In terms of the New Mexico vs. UNLV prediction, the Lobos will have a big game on the ground, and that will help them keep it close, and while they may not win, they will cover the spread.

Over/Under Pick for New Mexico vs. UNLV

• Over 61 (+4 Units) 

The total has gone over for the last two games for UNLV and for two of the last three games for UNM, and that is the pick I am leaning towards. The Rebels only rank 125th in the nation, giving up an average of 33.4 ppg and in their last two games, they gave up a total of 104 points. They will give up a lot of points in this game as well with their poor run defense. However, UNLV will also score big, as they are not facing an overall strong Lobos’ defense, and they rank 17th in the nation in scoring. Like the last two games for UNLV, this game will be a barnburner, so the Over is the way to go.