North Texas Mean Green vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction and Picks - December 5, 2025
It's the AAC Championship on Friday Evening, and we have a North Texas vs Tulane prediction locked and loaded for you. North Texas has the best overall Record in the AAC at 11-1, while going 7-1 in league play. Tulane is also 7-1 in league play, and they have gone 10-2 overall. These teams did not meet in the regular season, and Tulane has won the last three games played between these teams. Read on to see our North Texas vs Tulane prediction.
When it comes to college football selections, our College Football predictions are stellar.
North Texas Has Won Six In A Row
North Texas rolled into the AAC Title Game with a 52–25 win over Temple on November 28, a performance that once again highlighted the sheer explosiveness of their offense. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker was sharp, throwing for 366 yards and three touchdowns, while freshman running back Caleb Hawkins continued his breakout season with 186 rushing yards and four scores. Wyatt Young added six catches for 127 yards, and the Mean Green piled up nearly 600 yards of total offense, building a 35–10 halftime lead before cruising to the finish. It was the kind of statement win that reinforced why this team has been one of the most dangerous in the country all season.
The Mean Green’s offensive identity is built on pace, precision, and balance, and the numbers back it up. They average 511.8 total yards per game (8th nationally) and 46.8 points per game (4th), with Mestemaker completing over 70% of his passes for 3,835 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Hawkins has been a revelation in the backfield, rushing for 1,216 yards and 23 touchdowns, while Young has emerged as a premier deep threat with 1,203 receiving yards and 10 scores. Add in Cameron Dorner’s 769 yards and six touchdowns, and you have a passing attack that ranks 6th in the nation at 325.7 yards per game. This group doesn’t just move the chains — they strike quickly, often flipping games with explosive plays that leave defenses scrambling.
Defensively, North Texas has been more uneven, though they’ve managed to hold up well enough to complement their offense. The Mean Green allow 372.6 yards per game (45th) and just 164.7 passing yards (5th), which speaks to the strength of their secondary. However, their run defense has been a glaring weakness, giving up 207.9 yards per game (124th), and that vulnerability has been exploited by physical opponents. Still, they’ve kept scoring in check at 24.2 points per game (49th) thanks to timely stops and 13 takeaways. Linebacker Ethan Wesloski and safety Quinton Hammonds have been key playmakers, but the challenge against Tulane will be containing a quarterback who can hurt them both through the air and on the ground.
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Defense Stands Tall In Win Over Charlotte
Tulane earned their spot in the AAC Championship with a 27–0 shutout of Charlotte on November 29, a game where their defense completely dominated. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff threw for 291 yards but was intercepted twice, while Jamauri McClure ran for 69 yards and Anthony Brown caught nine passes for 98 yards. Despite the turnovers, the Green Wave controlled the game from start to finish, holding Charlotte to just 140 total yards and forcing two takeaways. It was a performance that showcased Tulane’s ability to win with defense, even when their offense sputters.
Offensively, Tulane has been steady but not overwhelming, averaging 454.1 yards per game (38th) and 31.3 points per game (61st). Retzlaff has thrown for 2,717 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 561 yards and 14 scores, making him the dual‑threat centerpiece of their attack. Javin Gordon has added 479 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Shazz Preston leads the receiving corps with 582 yards and four scores. Tulane’s balance allows them to control tempo, but their passing efficiency has been inconsistent, ranking 44th nationally at 271 yards per game. When Retzlaff is sharp, the Green Wave can move the ball on anyone, but turnovers have been an issue, and they’ll need cleaner execution against a North Texas team that thrives on capitalizing quickly.
Defensively, Tulane has leaned heavily on its front seven, and the numbers show why. They allow just 131.3 rushing yards per game (34th), which has helped them control the line of scrimmage, but their secondary has been vulnerable, giving up 274.8 passing yards (120th). Overall, they surrender 406.1 yards per game (73rd) and 24.8 points (54th), but they’ve managed to stay competitive thanks to timely stops and 13 takeaways. Linebacker Sam Howard and defensive back Jack Tchienchou have been key contributors, and the Green Wave will need them at their best against North Texas’ high‑octane passing game. If Tulane can slow down Mestemaker and force the Mean Green to grind out drives instead of hitting big plays, they’ll have a chance to keep the game within reach.
North Texas vs Tulane Pick
North Texas vs Tulane Spread Pick
- North Texas -2.5 (4 Units)
North Texas -2.5 feels like the right side because the Mean Green have been playing at a level that few teams in the AAC can match offensively. In their 52–25 win over Temple, Drew Mestemaker threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns while Caleb Hawkins ran for 186 yards and four scores, showing the balance and explosiveness that has carried them all season. This is a unit averaging 511.8 yards per game (8th nationally) and 46.8 points per game (4th), with Mestemaker completing over 70% of his passes and Hawkins already at 23 rushing touchdowns. Wyatt Young and Cameron Dorner give them multiple deep threats, and the offense’s ability to strike quickly makes them extremely difficult to keep pace with. Against a Tulane defense that has struggled against the pass (274.8 yards allowed per game, 120th nationally), North Texas is well positioned to exploit mismatches and build separation.
Tulane’s strength lies in its rushing defense, but the Green Wave secondary has been vulnerable all year, and that’s a dangerous matchup against one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. Jake Retzlaff has been steady, but Tulane averages just 31.3 points per game (61st) compared to North Texas’ 46.8, and their offense has been prone to turnovers with six interceptions from Retzlaff alone. The Mean Green defense isn’t perfect, especially against the run, but their secondary ranks 5th nationally in passing yards allowed (164.7), which could neutralize Tulane’s aerial game. With Mestemaker’s efficiency, Hawkins’ dominance on the ground, and the sheer scoring power North Texas brings, laying the small number at -2.5 looks justified, as their offense should simply overwhelm Tulane’s defense over four quarters.
North Texas vs Tulane Over/Under Pick
- Over 66 (5 Units)
The Over 66 looks like a strong play because North Texas has been on an offensive tear, scoring 50 or more points in three straight games, including their 52–25 win over Temple where Drew Mestemaker threw for 366 yards and Caleb Hawkins rushed for 186 and four touchdowns. The Mean Green average 46.8 points per game (4th nationally) and pile up over 511 yards per contest (8th), while Tulane brings balance with 454 yards per game (38th) and a dual‑threat quarterback in Jake Retzlaff who has accounted for 28 total touchdowns. Tulane’s defense has been vulnerable through the air (274.8 passing yards allowed, 120th nationally), which sets up perfectly for North Texas’ high‑octane passing attack, while the Green Wave’s own offense is capable of keeping pace. With both teams bringing firepower and North Texas proving they can light up the scoreboard against anyone, the Over 66 has plenty of support.
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