Northern Illinois vs. UMass, Prediction and Pick, Wednesday November 12, 2025
Will a long losing streak be broken in this Northern Illinois vs. UMass prediction? UMass is 0-9 on the season and 0-5 in the MAC, but they have a chance for their first win in over a year when they meet Northern Illinois (2-7, 1-4 MAC) on Wednesday night at 7pmET from Amherst. It's going to be a frosty November night in New England with temperatures projected in the mid-thirties. Stat Salt not only offers this game, but check out more college football games for this week and this weekend.
Quick Picks and Prediction on NIU vs. UMass
If you're in a hurry, here is a quick guide to what you're looking for.
- Northern Illinois 21-UMass 17
- UMass covers the 11 points
- Total goes under the 43
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Odds and Line Movement
- These are the opening odds and current live odds
- Northern Illinois opened at -10.5
- The total opened at 45.5
- The current odds are Northern Illinois -11
- The total is 43
Opening Odds for NIU vs. UMass
- Spread opened at NIU -13.5
- Total opened at 44.5
- Money Line opened at UMass +430, NIU -600
(odds from FanDuel)
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Line Movement
- The money line moved from NIU -600 to -480. UMass moved from +430 to +370
- The spread moved from NIU -13.5 to UMass -11.5
- The total moved from 44.5 to 43.5
Key Matchups for NIU vs. UMass
NIU going for its second FBS win
It's been a rough year for the Huskies. Northern Illinois opened with a 19-17 win over FCS Holy Cross, which was not a good win and after that, they lost their next six games. Their defense was able to keep them in most of the games, including against Maryland (20-9 loss) and San Diego State (6-3 loss). They finally broke through with a 21-7 win on Oct. 25, which was their only FBS win of the season. However, their momentum was short-lived as they fell on Nov. 5 to Toledo 42-3.
The Huskies ran for just 62 yards on 36 carries and used two quarterbacks who combined for 11 completions on 29 attempts for just 141 yards. Whether it's Bruce Davidson (269 yds, 42.7% comp. rate, 1 TD, 3 INTs) or Josh Holst (689 yds passing, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 155 rush yds), NIU has had very little success in their passing game. Telly Johnson Jr. (601yds, 3 TDs) and Chavon Wright (512 yds, 2 TDs) have provided the most spark in the running game and on offense.
UMass going for any win.
The Minutemen have lost 13 straight games. That included a 27-26 loss to FCS Bryant at home on Sept. 6. UMass' last win came in 2024 against another FCS team, Wagner on Oct. 26. After NIU, UMass still has a chance to win a game at Ohio (4-1 MAC) and home against Bowling Green (1-5 MAC). This and their last home game are the two most likely chances to break that losing streak and win an FBS game for the first time since 2023, when they defeated Army 21-14 on Oct. 28.
UMass was crushed by Akron 44-10 in their last game on Nov. 4 and has covered just one of their MAC games (28-21 loss to Buffalo). The Minutemen have been disastrous on offense, as they've used three quarterbacks and one has thrown a touchdown pass. That's A.J. Hairston, who has 866 yards passing, four TDs and four INTs. He threw for just 54 yards against Akron with a TD, while Grant Jordan threw for 38 yards. RB Brandon Hood was held to seven yards rushing, but did have the best game of the season against Buffalo, when he rushed for 179 yards, including a 90-yard run.
Betting Trends for Northern Illinois vs. UMass
NIU:
- 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- 0-6 ATS last 6 after less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
UMass:
- 5-0 Over last 5 in November.
- 5-1 Over last 6 home games.
Key Injuries and Analysis for NIU vs. UMass
NIU:
- Three offensive guards are questionable with undisclosed injuries
- Safety Ty Myles (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 30 tackles
UMass:
No recent key injuries
Northern Illinois vs. UMass ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
These teams are having rough seasons, but it's tough to imagine Northern Illinois covering a double-digit number against anyone. Not for a team averaging 265.6 yards per game to rank 134th out of 136 teams in the nation. Their passing game ranks 134th and in that chilly weather, they'll likely be handing it off most of the time. UMass will cover and this game goes under.
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Spread
- UMass +11.5 (4 units)
Total for NIU vs. UMass
- Under 43.5 (4 units)
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Final Score Prediction
- Northern Illinois 21-UMass 17
This is one of those games that looks bad on paper, but should be very competitive. Neither team is going bowling, but that doesn't mean that they aren't going all out for pride. UMass doesn't do a lot of right, but they showed against Buffalo that they can be competitive. NIU has been dreadful on offense as a passing team and they are mediocre against the run. Their defense is strong enough to keep this a very low-scoring game and the chilly weather will make it a rock fight.
- Take UMass to cover the 11 or 11.5
- Go with the Under 43.5
