Northwestern Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers, Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Big Ten foes meet up in Happy Valley and we’re getting you ready to make the plays of the day with our Northwestern vs. Penn State predictions. The Wildcats (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) went out of conference last week to pick up a 42-7 over Louisiana-Monroe as -11.5 favorites at home. Penn State (3-2 SU, 0-5 ATS) fell for the second straight week in conference, losing 42-37 at UCLA as -25 favorites. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 EST. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Northwestern gets head above water
The Wildcats have picked off back-to-back wins to get over .500 and they are 1-1 in Big Ten play. They matched a season-high in last week’s game with 42 points of offense, which was backed by 515 total yards and 26 first downs. After allowing a first-quarter touchdown, the defense clamped down and held Louisiana-Monroe scoreless the rest of the way, yielding only 273 runs of them.
Northwestern’s offense is putting up 23.6 points per game, the third-worst average among Big Ten teams. They earn 381 total yards and 185 passing yards per game. Preston Stone went 20-31 for 262 yards and three touchdowns in last weekend’s win. The senior QB is completing 61.5% of his passes for 918 yards, 7 TDs, and 6 INTs. Stone has also been sacked eight times, though he got away clean last weekend. Four players have at least ten catches and Griffin Wilde leads the pack with 25 catches for 375 yards. They have the fifth-best running game in the conference, averaging 186 yards per game. Caleb Komolafe leads the ground attack with 344 yards and 4 TDs.
The Wildcats rank eighth in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing 17 points per game. They are giving up 311.8 total yards each week, and they own the sixth-best passing defense in the conference, allowing just 165 yards per game. Against the rush, they’ve given up 146.8 yards per game. Northwestern’s defense has nine sacks and two interceptions to its credit. Robert Fitzgerald leads the team with 42 tackles. Mac Uihlein has 34 tackles and both of the team's interceptions.
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Game notes
- Backup QB Ryan Boe had four receptions, averaging 21.3 yards per catch.
- Jack Olsen is 10-10 on PATs and 3-4 on FGs.
- Hubbard is ninth on Northwestern’s All-Time Sacks list with 15.5 for his career.
- Fred Davis II ranks 22nd in the nation with five passes defensed.
Penn State needs to reset goals
The Nittany Lions are reeling after their upset loss against an unranked UCLA side last week. In the process, they moved to 0-2 SU in the conference and fell from the Top 25 rankings. Their defense collapsed, allowing 446 yards, 22 first downs and a season-high 42 points. Offensively, they had 357 yards and 21 first downs in the loss.
On the offensive side of the ball, Penn State sits seventh in the Big Ten in scoring with 38.6 points per game. They’ve averaged 389 total yards each week and their rushing game ranks eighth, averaging 175.4 yards per game. Kaytron Allen averages seven yards per carry and leads the team with 377 yards and 6 TDs. Their passing game sits 12th in the Big Ten, averaging 213.6 yards per game. Drew Allar completed 73.1% of his passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns versus UCLA. He also rushed for a season-high 78 yards. The senior QB has thrown for 963 yards, 8 TDs, and 2 INTs and rushed for 147 yards. Three separate players have a team-high 18 catches, and five players have over 100 receiving yards.
After getting beaten up last week, the Penn State scoring defense is averaging 17.8 points per game, ninth in the Big Ten. They are giving up an average of 306.2 total yards and 149.4 rushing yards per game, third most in the conference. Against the pass, they give up 156.8 yards per game and have recorded four interceptions and 12 sacks. Amare Campbell leads the team and is fourth in the conference with 47 tackles. He is also tied with two others for the team sack lead with two.
Team notes
- Dani Dennis-Sutton recorded the team’s second blocked punt of the season last weekend.
- Campbell is one of three FBS players with 47-plus tackles and 5.5-plus tackles for loss.
- PSU is seventh in the nation in kick return average with 30.6 yards per return.
- Ryan Barker is 20-20 on PATs and 10-11 on FGs.
Northwestern vs. Penn State Picks
Spread Pick for Northwestern vs. Penn State
- Northwestern +22.5 (4 units)
Penn State owns a 16-5 SU lead in the head-to-head series and a three-game winning streak against Northwestern. These two last met in 2023, a game the Nittany Lions won by 28 points on the road as -26.5 favorites. The Nittany Lions came into the season with National Championship hopes but those seem to have been dashed with their loss last weekend. They’d had to deal with the repercussions of that loss all week, and that should weigh on them a bit as well in this matchup. Northwestern is going to force Penn State to their rushing game and that will slow down the pace of things. I won’t go so far as to say that the Wildcats pick off a win here, but I do think they can work within the boundaries of the points being given to them. Northwestern is 3-2 ATS in their last five games against the Nittany Lions.
Take the Wildcats getting the points.
Over/Under Pick for Northwestern vs. Penn State
- Over 46.5 (5 units)
This matchup features a pair of underachieving offenses. Regardless, they still have a combined 62.2 points per game. Northwestern is averaging 14 points per game in their two Big Ten efforts, which isn’t a lot. However, they’ve got one of the best running attacks in the Big Ten and the Penn State rushing defense has been abysmal. So, that should afford the Wildcats more scoring opportunities than their prior conference tilts. Of course, PSU is going to want to drop a big number on this game to prove that they are not washed. They obviously have the tools to do just that, and Northwestern’s defense will afford them the opportunity. The forecast calls for clear skies and mid-60s. The over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between the teams.
Take the over.
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