Notre Dame vs. Arkansas Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 27th, 2025
Use Code SSWC One of the great non-conference contests this weekend features a showdown between the #22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2, 0-1 SEC). We’ve got you covered with our Notre Dame vs. Arkansas prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET from Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, AR. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
#22 Fighting Irish Break Into Win Column
Coach Marcus Freeman and his Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off of a runner-up performance in the College Football Playoff last season. Unfortunately, the Irish haven’t followed up the campaign with much success in 2025. Notre Dame is just 1-2 out of the gate, where they dropped their opening contests to #10 Miami (27-24) and #16 Texas A&M (41-40). It took until week 4 to secure a win, when Notre Dame hammered Purdue 56-30 in the in-state clash. The Fighting Irish are now 1-2 ATS and they’re 3-0 to the over.
The inexperience at quarterback and the lack of defense have been to blame for the 1-2 start this year. Offensively, it’s redshirt freshman CJ Carr under center this year. He has thrown for 737 yards on a 66.2% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and two interceptions. WR Malachi Fields (203 yards, 1 TD) is his top target out wide. RB Jeremiyah Love has handled a bulk of the rushing work, gaining 284 yards and three touchdowns on 52 carries (5.5 YPC).
- After the bleak 1-2 start, Notre Dame’s win total sits at just 8.5 (-160/+130) entering week 5.
- Offensively, the Irish are scoring 40.0 points per game (18th), while averaging 431.0 yards per week (33rd).
- Defensively, they are 105th in the country this year, conceding 32.7 points per game. They’re allowing 397.0 yards per contest, which is 76th.
Razorbacks Drop Second Straight Game
As for Coach Sam Pittman and his Arkansas Razorbacks, they’re off to a modest 2-2 start this season. The Hogs opened up the year with consecutive victories over Alabama A&M (52-7) and Arkansas State (56-14), but then dropped two straight contests to #17 Ole Miss (41-35) and Memphis (32-31). Arkansas was a 7.5-point favorite against Memphis, so they dropped to 1-3 ATS with the outright loss. They’ve seen three of their four games go over the total.
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In terms of personnel, it’s veteran quarterback Taylen Green leading the offense in 2025. The redshirt senior has amassed 1,191 yards on a 64.3% completion rate, adding 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. WR O’Mega Blake leads the receiving group with 326 yards and three touchdowns on 24 receptions. Green (360 yards, 2 TD) is the top rusher, but RB Mike Washington Jr. (330 yards, 4 TD) isn’t far behind his production on the ground.
- The Hogs have an updated season win total of 4.5 (-130/+100), and they’re priced at +15000 to win the SEC.
- Arkansas’ offense has been great this season, ranking 17th in scoring (40.7 PPG), while putting up 552.0 yards per game (fifth).
- On the defensive side, the Razorbacks are 85th this season, allowing 29.0 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 93rd, conceding 418.3 yards per contest.
Notre Dame vs. Arkansas Pick
Spread Pick for Notre Dame vs. Arkansas
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4.5 (-105) (5 units)
Typically, I’d be looking to make a case for fading a young Notre Dame quarterback on the road against an SEC opponent. However, what has Arkansas shown us this season that would make anyone interested in betting on them? They had a couple of tune-up wins to open up the year, but then they followed those games up with losses to an Ole Miss (41-35) team that was without its starting quarterback and a road loss to a group-of-five Memphis (32-31) squad.
Don’t get me wrong, Notre Dame has its issues. However, they can mask their inexperienced quarterback play behind their sturdy offensive line and top-tier running back group. The Irish have a slight edge in turnover margin per game (-0.3 vs. -0.7), so if they take care of the ball and stick to the fundamentals, they should escape Fayetteville with a win and a cover.
Over/Under Pick for Notre Dame vs. Arkansas
- Over 63.5 (-112) (5 units)
I don’t know what number I’d start to consider betting the under at in this matchup. Maybe if we got north of 70 points I’d consider buying back and playing the under. But still, I won’t be surprised if both of these schools clear the 35-point mark either! These teams are each in the top-20 this season in scoring, with Notre Dame averaging 40.0 points per game (18th) against FBS-level competition and Arkansas coming in with 40.7 PPG (17th).
What has been really surprising is Notre Dame’s lack of defensive success. They won’t have an easy task this weekend against a talented, experienced dual-threat signal caller in Taylen Green. The Irish just got gashed for 30 points against Purdue, and they’re now allowing 32.7 points per game this season – yikes. The over is now 5-0 in Notre Dame’s last five games. I expect that trend to continue with these two high-octane offenses squaring off.
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