Notre Dame vs Navy Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026

Notre Dame and Navy meet Saturday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with kickoff at 12:00 pm ET on ABC. The No. 5 Fighting Irish are 6-1, sitting first among FBS independents after a 28-24 loss to BYU. Navy is 2-5, 13th in the American Conference at 1-4, following a 49-39 defeat against North Texas. Notre Dame is favored by 30.5 points, and the total is 55.5. The weather forecast calls for 54 degrees. Build your bankroll with our free NCAAF picks.

Notre Dame Coming Off a Tough Loss

Notre Dame had won four straight before traveling to BYU on October 17. The Irish lost 28-24, ending a run that included a 58-7 victory over Stanford and a 37-26 win at North Carolina. They'd also beaten Purdue 49-10 and Michigan State 27-10. Scoring hasn't been much of a problem, although the BYU defeat showed Notre Dame can be pushed. The Irish haven't played since that loss and now face a Navy team coming off a much higher-scoring contest.

CJ Carr has been sharp with the football, throwing for 1,639 yards and 16 touchdowns against just one interception. He's completed 66.8% of his passes and has been sacked only twice. Jordan Faison leads the receivers with 451 yards, while Jonaz Walton has rushed for 426 yards on only 57 carries. Nolan James Jr. has added six rushing touchdowns. Notre Dame has 17 rushing scores altogether, giving Carr plenty of support. On defense, Drayk Bowen leads the Irish with 38 tackles.

Injuries: B. Hebert and Q. Porter are out.

Navy Has Been Giving Up Points

The last two Saturdays have been rough for Navy's defense. North Texas scored 49 points in a 49-39 victory, one week after UTSA beat the Midshipmen 38-34. Navy scored 73 points across those games and still lost both. Its only victory in the last five outings came against Tulsa, 34-26. There was also a 14-9 defeat at Air Force and a 24-20 loss to UAB. Navy has been competitive at times, but stopping opponents has become a serious problem.

Jackson Gutierrez is responsible for much of Navy's offense, particularly on the ground. He's rushed for 869 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Braxton Woodson has another 384 rushing yards and five scores. The Midshipmen have gained 2,154 yards on the ground, compared with only 836 passing yards. Gutierrez has thrown seven touchdowns, although he's attempted just 64 passes. Coleman Cauley leads the defense with 58 tackles, while MarcAnthony Parker has four sacks.

Injuries: L. Walker, J. Chalmers and M. Barlow are out. J. Norris is questionable.

Key To The Game

Navy's ground attack is the obvious concern for Notre Dame. Gutierrez has carried the ball 150 times, and the Midshipmen average 5.7 yards per rush. If Navy keeps picking up first downs, Carr won't have as many possessions to work with. Notre Dame has the stronger passing game, though, and Navy's recent defensive performances suggest the Irish will find scoring opportunities. The question is whether Navy can sustain enough long drives to keep the favorite from pulling away early.

Notre Dame vs Navy Game Pick

• Navy Midshipmen +30.5

Thirty and a half points is a big number against a team that runs as often as Navy. Notre Dame should have the better offense, and Carr has been outstanding at protecting the football. Still, the Midshipmen have scored 34 and 39 points in their last two games. Gutierrez can create problems with his legs, and lengthy rushing possessions could help keep the margin manageable. Notre Dame should win comfortably, but I'm not convinced the Irish will cover such a large spread. Navy plus 30.5 is my choice.

Notre Dame vs Navy Over/Under Pick

• Over 55.5

Navy's last two games produced 88 and 72 combined points. That's partly down to a defense that allowed 87 points across those outings, but Gutierrez has also kept the offense moving. Notre Dame scored 58 against Stanford and 49 against Purdue, so the Irish have shown they can put up big numbers. Carr's passing accuracy could be particularly troublesome for Navy. The Midshipmen may shorten the game by running frequently, but they should contribute some points themselves. I like Notre Dame to score plenty, with Navy doing enough to push the total over 55.5.