Ohio State vs Texas Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, to face the No. 5 Texas Longhorns on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ABC. Both teams enter at 1-0 after dominant opening victories, with Ohio State crushing Ball State 56-3 and Texas routing Texas State 59-7. The current betting market has Texas favored by approximately 1.5 points with the total around 47.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Ohio State Looks Dominant From the Opening Kick

Ohio State looked every bit like the nation's No. 1 team in its 56-3 destruction of Ball State. The Buckeyes scored 14 points in every quarter and piled up an enormous 671 total yards, including 434 through the air and 237 on the ground.

Julian Sayin was remarkably efficient, completing 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards. Jeremiah Smith caught eight passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns, while Devin McCuin added six receptions for 97 yards and a score. Ohio State finished with 32 first downs and averaged better than eight yards per offensive play.

The defense was just as dominant. Ball State finished with only 165 total yards, including 45 rushing yards, and managed three points. Ohio State's combination of offensive explosiveness and defensive speed gives the Buckeyes very few obvious weaknesses entering Austin.

The competition changes dramatically this week, but Ohio State also carries an important psychological advantage. The Buckeyes beat Texas 14-7 in Columbus last season, holding the Longhorns to their fewest points in a game since 2021. Texas now gets its opportunity for revenge on its home field.

Texas Makes Its Own Statement in Week 1

Texas was every bit as dominant in its opener, crushing Texas State 59-7 in front of more than 102,000 fans in Austin. The Longhorns built a 28-7 halftime lead and then scored 31 unanswered points after the break.

Arch Manning and the Texas offense consistently created explosive opportunities, while the Longhorns' defense prevented Texas State from generating anything resembling a comeback. Texas scored touchdowns in every quarter and completely controlled the second half.

The Longhorns entered the season with national championship expectations, and the opener did nothing to diminish them. However, Ohio State represents an entirely different challenge. Texas State could not consistently pressure Manning or match Texas physically, while the Buckeyes possess elite talent throughout their defensive front and secondary.

Home field is significant in a matchup this close, but Texas will need substantially better offensive execution than it produced in last year's seven-point performance in Columbus. The Longhorns have waited a year for this rematch, and the atmosphere should be among the best anywhere in college football Saturday night.

Ohio State vs Texas Picks and Prediction

Pick: Ohio State +1.5

Ohio State +1.5 is my preferred side. Home field is the primary reason Texas deserves to be priced around a field goal better than it would be on a neutral field, but Ohio State's Week 1 performance reinforced just how complete this roster remains. The Buckeyes produced 671 yards while allowing 165, and Sayin completed 84 percent of his passes. Texas absolutely can win this game, but I don't see enough separation between these teams to pass on points with the defending winner of this matchup. With the market moving through pick'em toward Texas, take Ohio State +1.5.

Pick: Under 47.5

The Under 47.5 is my preferred total. Both offenses scored more than 50 points in their openers, but those performances came against dramatically weaker opponents. Last season's Ohio State-Texas meeting produced only 21 combined points, and both programs still possess championship-caliber defensive personnel. The stakes should also encourage a more calculated approach than we saw against Ball State and Texas State. A matchup in the neighborhood of 24-21 or 23-20 fits better than an offensive shootout. Take Under 47.5.

Final Picks: Ohio State +1.5 and Under 47.5