Ohio State vs USC Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026
No. 2 Ohio State visits USC on Saturday with a major concern at quarterback. Julian Sayin is out, leaving the Buckeyes without their leading passer. Ohio State is 6-1, second in the Big Ten at 4-0, after beating Indiana 19-15. USC is 6-2, seventh in the conference at 3-2, following a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin. Kickoff is at 7:30 pm ET from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on NBC. Ohio State is favored by 6.5 points, with the total at 51.5. Be a winner when using our free NCAAF picks.
Ohio State Facing a Quarterback Problem
Ohio State hasn't lost in its last five games, but Saturday brings a very different challenge. The Buckeyes edged Indiana 19-15 on October 17 after putting up 45 against Maryland and 31 at Iowa. They also beat Illinois 42-19 during that run. Those results came with Sayin running the offense, something Ohio State won't have against USC. The Buckeyes have had an extra week since facing Indiana, although replacing their starting quarterback is a much bigger issue than ordinary game preparation.
Sayin's absence takes 2,007 passing yards and 19 touchdown throws out of Ohio State's lineup. Luke Fahey has completed nine of 13 attempts for 203 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Tavien St. Clair has attempted only seven passes, completing five for 52 yards. Neither backup has much playing time, especially compared with Sayin's 192 attempts. That lack of experience makes this a difficult road assignment. Jeremiah Smith has 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, but getting him the football won't be quite as straightforward.
Injuries: Julian Sayin and Ja'Kobi Jackson are out. Bo Jackson, A. Valerio-Hudson, T. Rogers and B. Christian are questionable.
USC Has a Chance to Respond
USC's trip to Wisconsin went badly last Saturday. The Trojans scored only seven points in a 24-7 defeat, ending a two-game winning streak. Before that loss, USC had beaten Penn State 31-23 and Washington 25-21. The Trojans also lost 41-27 to Oregon earlier in the season, so their results against stronger opponents have been mixed. Saturday's matchup offers a different opportunity, with Ohio State missing the quarterback responsible for most of its passing production.
Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,302 yards and 19 touchdowns, completing 66.8% of his passes. That's a considerable experience advantage over Ohio State's available backups. King Miller has rushed for 602 yards and four scores, while Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads USC's receivers with 443 yards. Trent Mosley has another 411 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, Luke Wafle and Kennedy Urlacher have three sacks apiece. The Trojans haven't always protected Maiava well, but they have the established quarterback in this matchup.
Injuries: Mark Bowman, K. Reddick, Deshonne Redeaux, R. Ison, S. Huard and R. Tezeno are questionable. Terrell Anderson, Corey Simms and K. O'Connor are out.
Key To The Game
Ohio State's quarterback situation changes how I see this game. Fahey has thrown only 13 passes, and two were intercepted. St. Clair has even less experience, with seven attempts. USC can challenge either quarterback to make difficult throws rather than allowing Smith easy catches. The Buckeyes may also need more from their rushing attack, especially with Bo Jackson questionable. USC has an experienced passer in Maiava and can attack through the air. The question is whether Ohio State can protect its backup against a defense playing at home.
Ohio State vs USC Game Pick
I would feel differently about this spread with Sayin available. He's been responsible for most of Ohio State's passing production, and the backups have barely played. Fahey has shown he can produce big gains, but two interceptions in just 13 attempts raise concerns. USC struggled at Wisconsin, although the Trojans have a capable quarterback and enough offensive talent to challenge Ohio State. The Buckeyes still have the stronger overall record and plenty of dangerous players. Even so, laying 6.5 points with an inexperienced quarterback on the road doesn't appeal to me. I'll take USC.
Ohio State vs USC Over/Under Pick
- Under 51.5
Ohio State scored only 19 points against Indiana in its last game, and that was with Sayin available. Now the Buckeyes are relying on a quarterback with very little playing time. That could mean fewer deep throws and more work for the running backs. USC managed seven points against Wisconsin, so the Trojans haven't exactly been scoring in bunches. Maiava gives USC a better chance through the air, but Ohio State's defense should still provide a difficult matchup. I expect the Buckeyes to play more cautiously without Sayin, making under 51.5 the better choice.