Oklahoma State vs. Oregon Prediction and Picks – September 6, 2025
The Oregon Ducks will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Oklahoma State vs. Oregon prediction. Both teams secured expected wins against non-major opponents in Week 1, with OSU taking out Tennessee-Martin 27-7 while Oregon trounced Montana State 59-13. Kickoff for Saturday's Week 2 game is set for 3:30 PM ET.
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Can Gundy Lead Cowboys Through Hejny's Absence?
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in their 21st straight season under head coach Mike Gundy – the longest-tenured head coach in the Big 12 and tied for the second-longest tenured FBS coach behind Iowa's Kirk Ferentz. It's been a highly successful run for Gundy, who's helped take the Cowboys to a winning record and bowl appearance in all but two seasons at the helm of his alma mater. The first of those two seasons was 2005, during which the Cowboys went 4-7. The latter was last season, when the Cowboys cratered to 3-9 overall and 0-9 in conference play, finishing at the bottom of a freshly-expanded, 16-team Big 12.
Snap back to 2025, and Oklahoma State is 1-0 under Gundy and a pair of new coordinators after winning 27-7 over Tennessee-Martin. The Cowboys' offense was efficient, if not explosive, gaining 359 yards while converting 10 of 18 third-down attempts and their lone fourth-down attempt. Freshman quarterback Zane Flores completed 13 of 20 passes for 136 yards, averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt and taking two sacks. Flores played in relief of Hauss Hejny, who threw the team's lone passing touchdown and ran for another before leaving the game with an injury – a broken bone in his left foot, for which he's since had surgery. Hejny will miss multiple weeks; in his absence, the team will need to lean on a running game that averaged only 3.0 yards per carry – and didn't post a single run of 20+ yards – in 42 carries against UT-Martin.
Of course, the other story surrounding this game is the recent off-field remarks exchanged between Gundy and Ducks head coach Dan Lanning. Gundy commented Monday on his radio show about the relative amount that Oklahoma State and Oregon have spent on their football rosters. Gundy threw out that the Cowboys had spent 'around $7 million' on their roster over the past three years, while claiming Oregon spent close to $40 million in 2024 alone. Lanning responded by telling reporters that he has "a lot of respect" for Gundy, before pointing out that Oklahoma State had just played UT-Martin. Whether or not it affects the outcome, this story figures to follow both coaches into game day and the immediate aftermath, if not beyond.
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Will Ducks Make Another Playoff Push in 2025?
The Oregon Ducks opened the 2025 season emphatically, dismantling the visiting Montana State Bobcats 59-13 – more than covering the 28-point spread and single-handedly topping the 56.5 pregame total line. The Ducks' offense gained 506 yards, gained 29 first downs, went 7-10 on third down, and went 2-2 on fourth down. Senior kicker Atticus Sappington made a 23-yard field goal to cap the only drive that wasn't ended by a touchdown or the end of the fourth quarter. Sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, the team's third starting quarterback in three seasons after Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel left for the NFL in consecutive years, completed 18 of 23 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns.
Dan Lanning is in his fourth season with the team, coming off a 2024 season in which the Ducks finished the regular season undefeated—despite playing in a Big Ten conference that sent four teams to the College Football Playoff. He'll look to push the Ducks further into the postseason this year, after their 2024 bid ended with an inglorious 21-41 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Behind Lanning is a staff consisting of offensive coordinator Will Stein, co-offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi, and co-defensive coordinator Chris Hampton. Mehringer is in his first year with the title after succeeding Junior Adams, who now coaches receivers for the Dallas Cowboys. The other three coordinators have each held their current title since 2023, forming a remarkably stable staff for a team that's enjoyed sustained success since Lanning took the job in 2022.
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon Pick
Spread Pick for Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
- Oregon -28.5 (-110) (5 Units)
Putting aside the off-field antics between Gundy and Lanning, Oklahoma State is taking a reserve freshman quarterback into a road game against Oregon – a team that, by the end of the 2024 regular season, had sat atop the AP Poll and CFP Rankings for six straight weeks. Add in the off-field antics, and the Ducks have some degree of extra motivation to beat a team that they're already projected to rout. Oregon beat Colorado 42-6 in 2023, a game for which Lanning hyped up his players pre-game by going after the Buffaloes' early, and prematurely-hyped, success under head coach Deion Sanders. This situation between Lanning and Gundy isn't a one-to-one replication of that pregame narrative, but there's something to be accounted for with the Ducks and external motivation.
- Over/Under Pick for Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
- Over 57.5 (-110) (5 Units)
The Team Total Over hit in the last three games of the Ducks' 2024 season and is 1-0 thus far in 2025. Oregon scored 30+ points in all but two games in 2024 – their season opener against Idaho and a late-season dirge against the slow, low-scoring Wisconsin Badgers. Oklahoma State closed 2024 by giving up 38 or more points against eight straight opponents, with the last two (Texas Tech and Colorado) each eclipsing 50. I'll take the Ducks to hit the over here with whatever help the Cowboys give them.
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