Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The #14 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1, 3-1 B12) were upset last weekend on the road against Arizona State, but they’ll try to bounce back on Saturday when they host the lowly Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-6, 0-4 B12). We’ve got you covered with our Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 ET from Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Cowboys’ Slide Continues
This has been an absolute disaster of a season for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. It got so bad that they fired longtime coach Mike Gundy after a 1-2 start. This has paved the way for Coach Doug Meacham to take the reins, and considering the Cowboys are now 1-6 overall, it’s safe to say that the transition hasn’t been smooth. At 0-4 in Big 12 play, only Oklahoma State and West Virginia are winless in the conference this year. Okie State is also 1-6 ATS and they’ve gone 4-3 to the over this year.
It has been a carousel at quarterback for the Cowboys this year, but as of Wednesday, starter Zane Flores (upper-body) wasn’t listed on the injury report. He should be the starter if he’s healthy and ready to roll. The signal caller hasn’t been great, however, throwing for only 696 yards on a 55.0% completion rate, adding no touchdowns and three interceptions. WR Gavin Freeman is the top target in the passing game with 233 yards and two touchdowns on 23 receptions. RB Rodney Fields Jr. (420 yards, 1 TD) is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury, and if he can’t go, RB Kalib Hicks (125 yards) will get a bulk of the rushing workload.
- Oklahoma State’s offense has been horrendous this season, ranking 128th in scoring (14.8 PPG), while putting up 303.7 yards per game (123rd).
- On the defensive side, the Cowboys are 135th this season, allowing 43.7 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 135th as well, conceding 509.5 yards per contest.
#14 Red Raiders Upset in Tempe
This is the fourth season that Coach Joey McGuire has been in charge of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and between his coaching prowess and some help from the donors, this Red Raiders squad is rolling. They’re 6-1 out of the gate, but they did just suffer their first loss on the road last weekend against Arizona State (26-22). They have a notable win over #16 Utah (34-10) earlier in the year, and their only ranked opponent remaining is #11 BYU on November 8th. As for the game-by-game gambling numbers, Tech is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 to the under.
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Texas Tech is dealing with a QB injury as well, and it’s confirmed that Behren Morton (undisclosed) will be sidelined for a second consecutive week. QB Will Hammond will get the nod, and he has thrown for 578 yards on a 63.8% completion rate in relief, and he owns a 6/3 TD/INT ratio. Out wide, WRs Caleb Douglas (414 yards, 1 TD) and Coy Eakin (407 yards, 4 TD) are the lead options in the passing attack. RB Cameron Dickey has been a workhorse in the backfield, logging 631 yards and eight touchdowns on 100 carries (6.3 YPC) this year.
- Texas Tech is priced as a -110 favorite to win the Big 12, while sitting at +3000 t o win the national championship.
- Offensively, the Red Raiders are scoring 40.0 points per game (fifth), while averaging 488.5 yards per week (eighth).
- Defensively, they are seventh in the country this year, conceding 15.3 points per game. They’re allowing 292.3 yards per contest, which is 11th.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Pick
Spread Pick for Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
- Texas Tech -37.5 (-105) (5 units)
This is a massive spread, but I think it’s warranted considering we have arguably the best team in the Big 12 taking on the worst in the conference. There is just such an imbalance in the trenches between the two teams that I expect the Red Raiders to rattle off some massive runs and chunk plays, which should in turn, provide enough scoring chances for them to cover this number.
Additionally, the Cowboys own a turnover margin per game metric of -0.3. Texas Tech is +0.7 in the statistical category. Oklahoma State, even with QB Zane Flores’ potential return, shouldn’t score enough to keep this game close. They’ve been held to 17 points or less in five of their last six games, and now they’re tasked with trying to move the ball on a top-10 defense in the nation. Tech could hang 50 on the visitors this weekend, and they should have no issues covering.
Over/Under Pick for Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
- Over 54.5 (-110) (5 units)
I’ll play the over in this game as well. As I mentioned above, I expect to see quite a few explosive plays against Oklahoma State in this one. Their defense has been a joke, allowing 43.7 points per game against FBS-level competition this season. To put that in perspective, that’s 135th out of 136 possible teams. Now they’ll be tasked with trying to stop a Texas Tech offense that’s averaging 40.0 points per game. That’s fifth in the nation. We could see this game end in the 59-0 range, or maybe Oklahoma State finds a garbage-time touchdown and it ends 49-7 and sneaks over. Give me the over.
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