Oklahoma State vs. UCF Prediction and Picks – Saturday, November 22, 2025
The UCF Knights will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Oklahoma State vs. UCF prediction. UCF has lost three straight games and six of its last seven; Oklahoma State has lost each of its last nine. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 22.
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Oklahoma State drops ninth straight game in 2025
It's hard to find redeeming qualities in the Oklahoma State Cowboys' 2025 football season. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent, they haven't improved since the midseason firing of longtime head coach Mike Gundy, and they've looked noncompetitive in the overwhelming majority of their games. Last week's 14-6 loss to Kansas State was the closest game the Cowboys had played since hosting Tulsa early in the season, but the game presented its own challenges for OSU fans.
Oklahoma State gained 373 yards and 23 first downs against Kansas State while giving up 284 yards and 14 first downs on defense. They scored first and stayed ahead for much of the first half, keeping a game that Kansas State entered as 19.5-point favorites much closer than the oddsmakers expected. They also committed an egregious five turnovers–their four second-half possessions, in order, ended with two fumbles, an interception, and a turnover on downs. All four drives advanced to within 30 yards of the Wildcats' endzone; the first drive made it all the way to the Kansas State nine-yard line before Zane Flores lost the ball on a sack. Had Oklahoma State merely attempted a field goal on their last scrimmage play of each drive, they'd more than likely have scored enough points to win. Logan Ward converted on two 47-yard attempts before missing a 55-yard kick near the end of the first half.
Zane Flores completed 24 of 36 passes for 233 yards and two interceptions. Trent Howland added a pass attempt for a third interception, while Sam Jackson completed his lone pass attempt for a seven-yard loss. The Cowboys rank 116th among 136 FBS teams in passing yards per game (176.3), 101st in rushing yards (128.9), 134th in points (14.3), and 131st in points allowed (36.3).
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What's wrong with Central Florida?
The UCF Knights are 4-6 this season and 1-6 in Big 12 conference play heading into Week 13. They opened the season with three wins, including a 34-9 win over UNC, but have put on largely disappointing performances down the stretch. Last week's loss to Texas Tech, while not unexpected, could've looked a lot better than the 48-9 defeat that UCF suffered.
Texas Tech played a (mostly) clean, easy game against UCF–499 yards, 26 first downs, no turnovers, and eight third-down conversions on 12 attempts. UCF ran nine plays in the first quarter for a net loss of one yard; Texas Tech, on its first two drives, gained 133 yards and two touchdowns on ten plays. The score was 38-2 by halftime, thanks to a punt from Anthony Venneri that was downed at the Texas Tech four-yard line. The Red Raiders started their next possession at the two-yard line after a holding penalty, and gave up a safety two plays later.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stephen Nover | +1,126.00 |
| 2 |  David Hess | +998.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +996.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +820.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +743.00 |
Tayven Jackson had an efficient game, completing 27 of 33 passes, but only gained 178 yards and a touchdown while throwing an interception and taking three sacks. Jaden Nixon led the team with 15 carries, but gained only 32 yards on the ground and didn't break off a single run of ten or more yards. Jackson was still playing on the Knights' last drive of the fourth quarter, before a Red Raiders offense led by backup quarterback Mitch Griffis executed a 16-play, 70-yard drive to milk the last ten minutes off the clock.
Understandably, UCF lost last week–Texas Tech currently ranks fifth on the College Football Playoff Rankings, and they entered last week's game as 24.5-point favorites. It's still a bad omen that the best player in the Knights' box score was their punter.
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Pick
Spread Pick for Oklahoma State vs. UCF
- UCF -13.5 (-105) (4 Units)
The Cowboys have been dreadful this season, full stop. UCF has had some extremely low moments, but last week's loss to Texas Tech was expected. The Knights have been better at home, where they've beaten West Virginia 45-13 and lost to Houston 30-27 in their last two games. The closest of the Cowboys' four road losses this season is their 38-21 loss to Kansas–easily clearing their 69-3 loss at Oregon, their 41-13 loss at Arizona, and their 42-0 loss at Texas Tech. If UCF has another win in them, it's this week–they're traveling to play BYU for their regular season finale.
Over/Under Pick for Oklahoma State vs. UCF
- Under 47.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Cowboys' offense has eclipsed 20 points only three times this season–when their games have hit the Team Total Over, it's been a product of their opponents beating the brakes off of them. The Knights pulled off something like that about a month ago, when they hosted West Virginia and won 45-13, but they haven't hit the 30-point mark in any of their other Big 12 games this season. The Knights' offense accounted for 10 total points in their loss to Texas Tech and their 30-3 loss to Baylor this month–they're hardly a safe bet to run up the score against anyone, even an opponent as vulnerable as Oklahoma State.
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