Oklahoma vs Michigan Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners travel to Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor to face the No. 16 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on FOX. Both teams are 1-0, but their season openers couldn't have looked much different. Oklahoma crushed UTEP 51-0, while Michigan needed a Hail Mary on the final play to defeat Western Michigan 13-12. The current betting market has Oklahoma favored by 5.5 points with the total around 44.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Oklahoma Dominates Its Season Opener

Oklahoma looked like a legitimate contender in its opener, scoring on its first eight possessions while shutting out UTEP 51-0. The Sooners held the Miners to 198 total yards and built a 27-0 halftime advantage before adding another 17 points during the third quarter.

John Mateer completed his afternoon with 225 passing yards and three touchdowns. Lloyd Avant led the rushing attack with 79 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, while Isaiah Sategna III contributed 76 receiving yards and caught a touchdown in addition to returning a punt 88 yards for another score.

The defensive performance may be even more important entering Ann Arbor. Oklahoma allowed only 86 passing yards and held UTEP to 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. Michigan's offensive problems in Week 1 give the Sooners an opportunity to dictate this game with their defense.

Michigan Survives a Major Scare

Michigan escaped Western Michigan 13-12 when Bryce Underwood connected with JJ Buchanan for a 47-yard Hail Mary as time expired. Underwood completed 12 of 22 passes for 170 yards, while Michigan generated only 106 rushing yards.

Buchanan was the offensive bright spot with six catches for 126 yards and the game-winning touchdown. The Wolverines' defense also kept them in the game, holding Western Michigan scoreless on five consecutive possessions during one stretch. Dom Nichols recorded 1.5 sacks, while Troy Bowles finished with 12 tackles.

The concern is obvious. Michigan scored only 13 points against Western Michigan and struggled to sustain drives after its opening possession. Oklahoma's defense represents a substantial increase in difficulty, making offensive improvement essential if Michigan is going to pull the upset.

Oklahoma vs Michigan Picks and Prediction

Pick: Oklahoma -5.5

Michigan is difficult to bet against at the Big House, but Oklahoma -5.5 is the preferred side. The Sooners dominated both sides of the football in Week 1, while Michigan needed a miracle final play to avoid an upset against Western Michigan. Mateer gives Oklahoma the more productive quarterback coming out of the opener, and the Sooners' defense just held UTEP to 198 yards. Michigan's defense should keep this competitive, but Oklahoma has enough offensive advantages to create separation. Take Oklahoma -5.5.

Pick: Under 44.5

The Under 44.5 is my second play. Michigan's defense remains capable of making Oklahoma work for points, but the Wolverines' offensive performance against Western Michigan makes it difficult to project a major scoring output against the Sooners. Oklahoma doesn't need this to become a shootout if its defense controls Michigan. Something around 27-13 or 27-16 fits the matchup. Take Under 44.5.

Final Picks: Oklahoma -5.5 and Under 44.5