Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Red River Rivalry is set to renew on Saturday, and this should be a mammoth of a matchup between the #6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0, 1-0 SEC) and the Texas Longhorns (3-2, 0-1 SEC). We’ve got you covered with our Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 ET from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
No. 6 Sooners Stay Perfect at 5-0
It has been tough sledding for Coach Brent Venables and his Oklahoma Sooners throughout his 3+ year tenure, but it appears that the program is taking a turn for the better. The Sooners are off to a perfect 5-0 start this season, and they come in at sixth in the latest AP Poll. Oklahoma has notched notable wins over #15 Michigan (24-13) and #22 Auburn (24-17) thus far. They’ll play Texas and South Carolina, before finishing the season with five top-15 opponents. The Sooners are priced at +900 to win the SEC, +1800 to win the National Title, and +100 to make the CFP.
Speaking of the odds, QB John Mateer currently has the sixth-shortest price (+1500) to win the Heisman Award. The signal caller, who has 1,215 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT ratio, is questionable (thumb) for Saturday. If he can’t go, Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the nod. He has thrown for 167 yards on a 55.6% completion rate, adding three touchdowns and no picks. RB Tory Blaylock has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 257 yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries (4.5 YPC). Out wide, WR Isaiah Sategna (359 yards, 3 TD) and TE Jaren Kanak (328 yards) are the top targets.
- Oklahoma’s offense has been strong this season, ranking 29th in scoring (33.5 PPG), while putting up 395.3 yards per game (55th).
- On the defensive side, the Sooners are second this season, allowing only 8.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re second as well, conceding only 203.5 yards per contest.
Longhorns Drop Out of Top 25
It was really a “National Championship of Bust” mentality heading into the 2025 campaign for Coach Steve Sarkisian and his Texas Longhorns, but the program has fallen flat on its face through five games. They’ve logged tune-up wins against San Jose State (38-7), UTEP (27-10), and Sam Houston (55-0), but the three-game winning streak is bookended by road defeats against #3 Ohio State (14-7) and Florida (29-21), more recently. The Longhorns are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, and 3-2 to the under. They’re now +280 just to make the CFP.
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It has not been a fruitful season for QB Arch Manning. He enters the weekend with 1,151 yards on a 60.0% completion rate, adding an 11/5 TD/INT ratio. Manning is also the top rusher with 160 yards and five touchdowns on 443 carries (3.7 YPC). RB Jerrick Gibson has 155 yards and a touchdown on 36 totes (4.3 YPC). Out wide, WRs Parker Livingston (279 yards, 3 TD) and Ryan Wingo (263 yards, 4 TD) are the main targets.
- Offensively, the Longhorns are scoring 29.6 points per game (47th), while averaging 419.4 yards per week (35th).
- Defensively, they are third in the country this year, conceding only 12.0 points per game. They’re allowing 261.0 yards per contest, which is ninth.
- Star corner Malik Muhammad missed the Florida game and is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Pick
Moneyline Pick for Oklahoma vs. Texas
- Oklahoma Sooners Moneyline (+100) (5 units)
As of this writing (Thursday evening), you know as much about QB John Mateer’s status as I do – he’s questionable with the thumb injury, and anyone outside of the program is in the dark on whether he’ll play or not.
So, what should we do with this game? I’m still riding with the Sooners on the moneyline at +100. This is mostly a fade of the Texas offense. QB Arch Manning’s inexperience at quarterback is extremely visible, and I simply do not trust him when stepping up against elite defenses. In the two games against Ohio State and Florida, he has a completion percentage of 55.9% with a 3/3 TD/INT ratio. Texas has lost both of its marquee games, while Oklahoma has taken care of ranked opponents in Michigan and Auburn. This play on the Sooners may get a little sweaty if Mateer is unable to go, but I’m still confident that they can take care of business. If he does play, we’re holding a very favorable ticket with an even-money payout.
Over/Under Pick for Oklahoma vs. Texas
- Under 43.5 (-115) (5 units)
I’m playing the under. Whether or not Mateer is good to go, I still think it’s the right play to be on the under. In its high-profile games, Oklahoma has scored 24 points against both Michigan and Auburn. Both of those games finished with sub-44 point totals, and the Sooners have now seen all five of their games finish with 45 points or fewer. They’ll take on a Texas defense that is elite, allowing only 12.0 points per game against FBS-level competition.
On the flip side, the Longhorns continue to struggle offensively. They’re 103rd in third-down conversion rate (34.4%). Texas is also only averaging 4.5 yards per carry (49th) in the ground game, which is quite ugly considering 60% of their games have been against non-Power Four schools. I don’t anticipate the offensive woes coming to a halt with the Oklahoma defense (8.3 PAPG) on the horizon. Give me the under.
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