Penn State Nitany Lions vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction and Picks - November 1, 2025
Saturday afternoon Big 10 College Football action, and we have a Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction ready to rock and roll. Penn State is having a rough season as they are just 3-4 on the year and come in off a 25-24 loss at Iowa. The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the nation at 7-0 on the year, and they are off a 34-0 road win over Wisconsin. Can Penn State get back on track? Will the Buckeyes remain perfect? Read on to see our Penn State vs Ohio State prediction.
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The Lions Are Reeling
Penn State comes into Columbus at 3-4 overall and 0-4 in the Big Ten, still reeling from a turbulent October that saw James Franklin dismissed after more than a decade at the helm. The move was as much about timing as it was about results, with the Nittany Lions dropping four straight one-score games and looking like a team that had lost its edge in crunch time. In stepped longtime assistant Terry Smith as interim head coach, and while the results haven’t flipped yet, the energy has. Smith has emphasized accountability and effort, and the players have responded with fight, even in a heartbreaking 25-24 loss at Iowa two weeks ago. It’s been a rough stretch, but there’s no denying the team is still playing hard for its new leader.
Offensively, Penn State has leaned heavily on its ground game, with Kaytron Allen rushing for 612 yards and nine touchdowns to pace the attack. Nicholas Singleton has chipped in six scores of his own, but the passing game has been a major concern. With Drew Allar sidelined earlier this month, redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer has been thrust into the starting role, and the growing pains have been obvious. He threw for just 93 yards with two interceptions against Iowa, and now he faces the nation’s top-ranked defense in Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will need Allen and Singleton to carry the load, because asking a young quarterback to win this game through the air is a tall order.
Defensively, Penn State has been better than its record suggests. The Nittany Lions rank 5th nationally in pass defense, allowing just 145 yards per game through the air, and the secondary has been the one consistent bright spot. Linebacker Amare Campbell has been a tackling machine, while Dani Dennis-Sutton continues to flash as a disruptive presence up front. The problem has been stopping the run, where they’ve given up nearly 160 yards per game, and that weakness could be exposed against Ohio State’s balanced attack. Still, if the defense can generate a turnover or two and keep the game close into the second half, Penn State has the kind of fight under Smith to at least make the Buckeyes earn it.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
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Buckeyes Look To Remain #1
Ohio State enters this matchup as the No. 1 team in the country at 7-0, and they’ve looked every bit the part of a national title contender. Their last outing was a 34-0 dismantling of Wisconsin, a game where quarterback Julian Sayin was nearly flawless, completing 36 of 42 passes for 393 yards and four touchdowns. The Buckeyes have been methodical, winning every game by at least 18 points, and they’ve done it with a combination of offensive efficiency and a defense that has been suffocating. Ryan Day’s group hasn’t been seriously tested since the opener against Texas, and this game sets up as another opportunity to flex their dominance before the November stretch run.
Sayin has been the steady hand guiding the offense, completing 80 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s spreading the ball around to a loaded receiving corps, with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both averaging over 80 yards per game and combining for 13 touchdowns. The run game hasn’t been overwhelming statistically, but Bo Jackson has been efficient, averaging 6.4 yards per carry, and provides enough balance to keep defenses honest. What makes Ohio State so dangerous is their ability to stay on schedule — they lead the nation in third-down conversions — and once they get rolling, it’s nearly impossible to slow them down.
Defensively, the Buckeyes have been nothing short of elite. They’re allowing just 5.9 points per game, the best mark in the country, and opponents are averaging fewer than 220 total yards against them. The front seven, led by Caden Curry and Arvell Reese, has been relentless, combining for over a dozen sacks and constant backfield disruption. The secondary has been equally stingy, with Sonny Styles anchoring a unit that has yet to allow a passing touchdown in Big Ten play. Against a Penn State offense that has struggled to move the ball consistently, Ohio State’s defense will be expected to set the tone early and force the Nittany Lions into uncomfortable situations. If the Buckeyes play to their standard, this could be another long afternoon for a Penn State team still trying to find its footing under new leadership.
Penn State vs Ohio State Pick
Penn State vs Ohio State Spread Pick
- Penn State +21 (4 Units)
Taking Penn State +21 has merit because even in the middle of a rough season and a coaching change, the Nittany Lions have shown they can hang around with quality opponents. Their defense, particularly against the pass, has been one of the best in the country, holding teams to just 145 yards per game through the air. That strength matches up well against Ohio State’s explosive passing attack, at least enough to prevent the Buckeyes from running away early. Add in the fact that Penn State still has a strong one-two punch in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton on the ground, and they have the tools to control tempo, shorten the game, and keep the margin within three touchdowns.
There’s also the intangible factor of the coaching change. With Terry Smith now leading the program, Penn State has been playing with a chip on its shoulder, showing fight even in close losses. That kind of energy can matter in a rivalry game, especially when the spread is this large. Ohio State is clearly the more talented team, but Penn State’s defense is good enough to force a few punts, and their running game is capable of grinding out long drives that eat clock. If they can avoid turnovers and limit explosive plays, the Nittany Lions have a realistic path to covering the number, even if pulling the outright upset is a tall order.
Penn State vs Ohio State Over/Under Pick
- Over 44.5 (5 Units)
The over 44.5 looks appealing because while Ohio State’s defense has been dominant, their offense has been just as relentless, averaging nearly 40 points per game behind Julian Sayin’s efficiency and a deep receiving corps. Penn State, meanwhile, still has enough talent in the backfield with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to break a few drives open, and their defense has shown vulnerability against the run that Ohio State can exploit. Add in the emotional spark from Penn State’s coaching change and the likelihood that the Buckeyes push tempo at home, and this matchup has the ingredients for both teams to contribute enough scoring to push it past the number.
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