Penn State Nitany Lions vs UCLA Bruins Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Big 10 College football on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Penn State vs UCLA Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Nitany Lions come in off a tough 30-24 loss to Oregon in OT to fall to 3-1 on the year. The Bruins are off to a slow 0-4 start, which includes a 17-14 loss to Northwestern on the road. Penn State won last year's meeting 27-11. How will this one play out? Read on to see our Penn State vs UCLA prediction.
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Lions Fall Short Against Ducks
Penn State heads west after a double-overtime loss to Oregon, falling 30–24 in a game where Drew Allar threw for 137 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Allar has totaled 763 passing yards and six touchdowns on 62.8% passing this season, while Kaytron Allen leads the ground game with 327 yards and four scores. The Nittany Lions rank 18th nationally in scoring offense (39.0 PPG) and 67th in total offense (397.0 YPG), with a methodical attack that leans on short throws and power runs.
Penn State has scored 17 total touchdowns and converted 88 first downs, ranking top-25 in red zone efficiency (94.7%) and 10th in time of possession (33:42). Trebor Pena leads the receiving corps with 182 yards and a touchdown, while Devonte Ross has emerged as a red zone threat with two scores last week. The Lions have committed just two turnovers and rank 11th nationally in turnover margin (+5), with a disciplined offense that’s built to control tempo and wear down defenses.
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Defensively, Penn State allows just 11.8 points per game (10th nationally) and 274.0 total yards (19th), with elite metrics against both the run and pass. Opponents are averaging just 154.5 passing yards and 119.5 rushing yards per game, with a 59.3% completion rate. The Lions have allowed only six total touchdowns and rank top-20 in third-down defense. With Northwestern on deck and Ohio State looming, this trip to Pasadena is a bounce-back opportunity against a struggling UCLA squad.
Bruins Look For First Win And Offense
UCLA returns home after a 17–14 loss to Northwestern, where quarterback Nico Iamaleava threw for 180 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 65 more. Iamaleava has thrown for 788 yards and four touchdowns on 65.3% passing, while leading the team in rushing with 204 yards and one score. The Bruins rank 134th in scoring offense (14.3 PPG) and 119th in total offense (321.3 YPG), with major issues in sustaining drives and finishing possessions.
The Bruins have scored just six total touchdowns and converted 74 first downs, ranking 131st in time of possession (25:45) and 136th in third-down defense (58.0% allowed). Kwazi Gilmer leads the receiving corps with 225 yards and one touchdown, but UCLA has struggled to generate explosive plays and ranks bottom-10 in yards per play. With a -2 turnover margin and 335 penalty yards on 36 infractions, the Bruins have consistently put themselves behind the chains.
Defensively, UCLA allows 31.3 points per game and 401.8 total yards (107th nationally), with breakdowns in run fits and red zone containment. The Bruins give up 232.8 rushing yards per game (133rd) and rank 119th in scoring defense, despite solid pass coverage metrics (169.0 YPG allowed). With Michigan State on deck and a winless start to the season, UCLA faces a steep uphill climb against a Penn State team built to exploit their weaknesses in the trenches.
Penn State vs UCLA Pick
Penn State vs UCLA Spread Pick
- UCLA +24.5 (4 Units)
UCLA +24.5 is a value-side play against a Penn State team coming off a double-overtime loss and facing a cross-country road trip. The Bruins may be 0–4, but they’ve held three of four opponents under 35 points and showed defensive resilience against Northwestern, allowing just 17. Nico Iamaleava has quietly thrown for 788 yards and four touchdowns while leading the team in rushing, and UCLA’s pass defense ranks top-25 nationally at 169.0 yards allowed per game. With Penn State averaging just 397.0 total yards and showing red zone inconsistency last week, the margin may be tougher to build than the line suggests.
This is also a situational spot where UCLA’s tempo and home field can help shorten the game. The Bruins rank bottom-10 in time of possession but have shown flashes of explosiveness, and Penn State’s methodical style doesn’t lend itself to quick separation. UCLA has committed just six turnovers and has enough defensive structure to force long drives and field goals. With Michigan State on deck and Penn State potentially looking ahead to Ohio State, this number feels inflated relative to UCLA’s ability to hang around.
Penn State vs UCLA Over/Under Pick
- Under 49.5 (5 Units)
The Under 49.5 is supported by Penn State’s elite defense and UCLA’s offensive struggles. The Nittany Lions allow just 11.8 points per game and rank top-20 nationally in total yards allowed, while UCLA has scored only six touchdowns all season and averages 14.3 points per game. With Penn State’s methodical pace and UCLA’s bottom-10 third-down conversion rate, possessions will be limited and explosive plays rare. This matchup profiles as a defensive grind, especially with Penn State potentially managing reps ahead of Ohio State.
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