Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC Saturday afternoon, Big 10 play on the College gridiron, and we have a Penn State vs Iowa Prediction ready to roll. Penn State sits at 3-3 on the year and they have lost three games in a row, including two as favorites of 21 or more. For that reason, they have now fired coach Franklin. Iowa comes in off a dominant 37-0 road win over Wisconsin to move to 4-2 on the year. Can Penn State get back on track in this one? Read on to see our Penn State vs Iowa prediction.
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James Franklin Is Out As Coach
Penn State enters Week 8 in full reset mode after firing head coach James Franklin on October 12 following a stunning three-game collapse. The Nittany Lions opened the season ranked No. 2 nationally and were considered a playoff lock, but consecutive losses to Oregon, winless UCLA, and Northwestern—two of them as 20+ point favorites—derailed the campaign and triggered the coaching change. Associate head coach Terry Smith steps in as interim, tasked with stabilizing a shaken locker room and salvaging a season that began with championship aspirations. The team is also without starting quarterback Drew Allar, who suffered a season-ending injury against Northwestern, leaving freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer to lead the offense.
Offensively, Penn State has talent but lacks rhythm. The Nittany Lions average 369.8 total yards and 35.7 points per game, but rank just 96th in passing and 129th in time of possession, holding the ball for only 26:37 per game. Running back Kaytron Allen has been a bright spot, rushing for 467 yards and 7 touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry, while Nicholas Singleton adds 259 yards and 6 scores. Wideout Devonte Ross leads the receiving corps with 240 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the passing game has been inconsistent, especially in third-down situations where Penn State converts just 38.7%. With a new quarterback and interim leadership, the offense will need to simplify and lean on its ground game to stay competitive.
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Defensively, Penn State has been solid despite the recent losses. The unit allows 302.2 total yards and 18.5 points per game, ranking top-30 nationally in scoring defense and pass coverage. Linebacker Amare Campbell leads the team with 50 tackles and 2 sacks, while Dani Dennis-Sutton and Tony Rojas have combined for 6 TFLs and 4 sacks. The secondary, anchored by Zakee Wheatley and King Mack, has held opponents to just 157.8 passing yards per game, but the run defense has been vulnerable, allowing 144.3 yards and 3.6 yards per carry. Penn State has forced 8 turnovers, but struggled to get stops in key moments, ranking 84th in third-down defense. With Iowa’s methodical pace and physicality, Penn State’s front seven will be tested early and often.
Iowa Blasts The Badgers On The Road
Iowa returns home after a dominant 37–0 win over Wisconsin, their most complete performance of the season. The Hawkeyes have quietly built a contender in the Big Ten West, leaning on elite defense and a run-first offense that controls tempo and minimizes mistakes. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has been efficient, throwing for 743 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 159 yards and 8 scores. The passing game is conservative by design, averaging just 142.0 yards per game, but the ground attack is formidable, led by Kamari Moulton (261 yards, 2 TDs) and Xavier Williams (241 yards, 3 TDs), with Iowa averaging 184.0 rushing yards—42nd nationally.
Offensively, Iowa ranks 113th in total yardage but 53rd in scoring at 30.7 points per game, thanks to short fields and red zone efficiency. The Hawkeyes convert 47.6% of third downs and average just 21.3 penalty yards per game, the fewest in the FBS. Wideout Sam Phillips leads the team with 193 receiving yards, while Kaden Wetjen and Jacob Gill provide short-area options. Iowa’s offensive line has allowed just 4 sacks, and the team has committed only 5 turnovers, showing discipline and control. Against a Penn State defense that’s struggled to get off the field, Iowa’s grind-it-out style could wear down the Nittany Lions over four quarters.
Defensively, Iowa is elite across the board. The Hawkeyes allow just 13.0 points per game and 246.7 total yards, ranking top-10 nationally in both categories. The run defense is especially stout, giving up only 79.0 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry, while the secondary allows just 167.7 passing yards. Linebackers Jaden Harrell and Karson Sharar have combined for 69 tackles, and defensive lineman Max Llewellyn leads the team with 5 sacks. Iowa has forced 6 turnovers and ranks 21st in red zone defense, allowing scores on just 75.0% of opponent trips. With Penn State adjusting to a new quarterback and coaching staff, Iowa’s defense could dictate the game from the opening snap.
Penn State vs Iowa Pick
Penn State vs Iowa Spread Pick
- Iowa -3 (4 Units)
Iowa -3 is a sharp lean in a matchup where stability, physicality, and defensive control favor the Hawkeyes. Penn State enters the game reeling from a coaching change and a quarterback injury, with freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer making his first road start against one of the most disciplined defenses in the country. Iowa allows just 13.0 points per game and ranks top-10 nationally in total defense, including 79.0 rushing yards allowed and 2.6 yards per carry. With Penn State’s offense sputtering and its locker room in flux, Iowa’s grind-it-out style and home-field edge give them a clear path to cover.
Offensively, Iowa’s methodical approach is built to control tempo and limit mistakes. The Hawkeyes convert 47.6% of third downs and average just 21.3 penalty yards per game, the fewest in the FBS. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has rushed for 8 touchdowns, and Iowa’s run game has produced over 180 yards per game, which matches up well against a Penn State front that’s allowed 144.3 rushing yards per contest. With short fields, red zone efficiency, and a defense that can force Penn State into long-yardage situations, Iowa is well-positioned to dictate the pace and cover the number.
Penn State vs Iowa Over/Under Pick
- Under 40.5 (5 Units)
Under 40.5 fits a matchup defined by defensive control, slow tempo, and offensive uncertainty. Iowa allows just 13.0 points per game and ranks top-10 nationally in total defense, while Penn State has held opponents to 18.5 points despite recent struggles. The Nittany Lions are starting a freshman quarterback on the road, and Iowa’s methodical offense averages just 142.0 passing yards and plays at one of the slowest paces in the Big Ten. With both teams built around field position and ball control, this game projects as a low-possession grinder unlikely to produce explosive scoring.
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