Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans Picks and Prediction, Saturday November 15, 2025
The 2025 College Football season has been full of amazing performances, massive upsets and major rivalries, and on Saturday, we'll potentially see another incredible matchup with our Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans prediction.
The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-6) started the 2025 season red-hot, but since the competition has gotten stiffer, this is a team that's completely fallen apart as they look to salvage some success from the year in a high-profile conference matchup.
On Saturday, they battle the Michigan State Spartans (3-6), a team that also comes into this one on the back of a six-game losing streak, and after some tough losses against unranked opponents, this is their chance to make a major late-season statement. Read on to see our Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans prediction.
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Can Penn State pick up their first road victory?
The Penn State Nittany Lions started 2025 with three straight victories, but since then, they've struggled for any consistency, and with a record of 0-3 away from home and an 0-6 mark against Big Ten rivals, that doesn't bode well for success in this matchup. Interim coach Terry Smith took over after the firing of head coach James Franklin an still looking for his first win. Despite their poor record, the Nittany Lions have a fairly consistent offense averaging 335 yards and 31 points a game, and with a defense that gives up just 22 points a game, they've got themselves a major strength that continues to keep them in games.
Under center, Penn State once more turns to freshman QB Ethan Grunkmeyer, who took over from Drew Allar and has played poorly in his first opportunity in 2025, tallying a total of just three scores and four turnovers across six games and three starts. Last time out for the Nittany Lions was a tight loss to the No. 2-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, with the team rushing for a solid 117 yards on the game as they kept it close late, with two turnovers leading to a tight 27-24 loss despite the offense out-gaining the highly ranked Hoosiers.
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Can Michigan State save their season?
The Michigan State Spartans began their 2025 campaign with three straight victories, and while they still hold a 3-2 record at home this season, they sit tied with Penn State in the Big Ten standings, both going 0-6 in conference play in 2025. For the Spartans this season, it's been all about consistency, with the team ranking top-100 in the NCAA in points scored and allowed as well as yards in both categories, but with a very rough schedule that has included three ranked teams in their last four games, this is a team that doesn't have a big strength to lean on.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
While the offense hasn't been elite, junior QB Aidan Chiles has posted 10 passing TD's along with six on the ground. He was replaced by Alessio Milliovijevic in his last outing against Minnesota, who went 20 for 28 for 311 yards. Last time out for the Spartans was a tight loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, with the team managing just 20 points despite over 460 yards on the day, with the offense simply failing to capitalize as they fell in this one 23-20.
Penn State vs. Michigan State picks
Moneyline pick for Penn State vs. Michigan State
- Michigan State +7 (4 units)
Simply put, these two teams both come into this matchup on the back of six straight defeats, and with both being 0-6 in Big Ten play this season, recent matchups tell us very little about the potential winner of this one. Both are evaluating new quarterbacks but MSU appears to have the edge in that department.
However, PSU is yet to find a win away from home this year as they sit at 0-3 to this point, and after wins in 2022 and 2023 from the Nittany Lions, expect Michigan State to turn the tides for a big home victory in this one.
Over/under pick for Penn State vs. Michigan State
- Over 46.5 (4 units)
This season, these two teams have both been very balanced, and while the defense has played very well in recent times, history tells us that when these two teams meet, plenty of points are scored, with the over being 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head encounters.
For the Nittany Lions, the over sits at 7-2-1 in their last 10 overall games, with 35 points allowed per game in three road games this season, and for the Spartans, the over comes in at 7-3 in their past 10, with 30 or more points allowed in six of their nine games played in 2025.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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