Pittsburgh (Pitt) Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction and Picks - September 13, 2025
The West Virginia Mountaineers will host the Pittsburgh Panthers for the renewal of an old Big East rivalry in Week 3, and we'll review the lines and odds in our Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia prediction. Pittsburgh is 2-0 to open the season after dominant wins over Duquesne and Central Michigan, while West Virginia is 1-1 after a low-scoring road loss to Ohio.
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Will Pitt's Early Success Translate Against WVU?
The Pittsburgh Panthers opened the 2025 season with wins over Duquesne (61-9) and Central Michigan (45-17), covering the spread in both games. It's a good start for a program that ended 2024 with six straight losses, but will the Panthers' early success translate against an opponent in WVU that they aren't expected to beat by multiple scores?
Pitt covered a 21.5-point spread in their win over CMU last week, gaining 464 yards and 22 first downs despite finishing with a significantly lower time of possession (23:17) than the Chippewas (36:43). Eli Holstein, the sophomore starting quarterback in his second year at Pitt, completed 21 of 28 passes for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Raphael Williams, Justin Holmes, and Josh Altsman hauled in touchdown passes from Holstein to put the Panthers up 21-3 by midway through the second quarter, and the team put the game away with rushing touchdowns from reserve backs Ja'Kyrian Turner and Juelz Goff.
The Panthers have played the Mountaineers in each of the last three seasons, ending a decade-long hiatus in the annual rivalry from when West Virginia joined the Big 12. Pitt has won each of their last two home games against WVU, but they haven't won in Morgantown since LeSean McCoy carried them to a 13-9 win in 2007.
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How will WVU Rebound from the Ohio Loss?
The West Virginia Mountaineers opened the season with an expected 45-3 win over Robert Morris, covering a 40-point spread. They followed that act with a 10-17 road loss to the Ohio Bobcats in Week 2. It was an interesting game for the Bobcats, who've now exceeded expectations in back-to-back weeks to open the 2025 season against Rutgers and WVU, but what does it mean for a Mountaineers team that's already fielding big questions about their 2025 outlook?
Ohio outgained WVU dramatically in their matchup, gaining 429 yards to the Mountaineers' 250 and converting 24 first downs to the Mountaineers' 13. Ohio went 5-of-14 on third down while holding WVU to a dismal 2-of-13, and they finished the game having possessed the ball for over 40 minutes. Jahiem White, who scored the Mountaineers' lone touchdown of the day with a 32-yard run in the first quarter, will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery for an injury sustained in the game. Same with receiver Jaden Bray, who currently ranks second in the Mountaineers' receiving corps with 95 yards on seven catches.
West Virginia hasn't lost at home to Pittsburgh since 2007–their only matchup in Morgantown since the rivalry was annually renewed in 2022 ended in a 17-6 win. It'll be tough for head coach Rich Rodriguez and junior quarterback Nicco Marchiol to maintain that streak with what's available to them.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia Pick
Spread Pick for Pittsburgh vs West Virginia
- Pittsburgh -7.0 (-110) (4 Units)
West Virginia didn't look terribly impressive against Ohio last week after losing White, who sits firmly at the top of their rushing leaderboard with 133 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries, in the second quarter. Marchiol ranks second on the team in rushing with 65 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries–he isn't a dual-threat with a 2.7 yards-per-carry average. Without the focal point of their offense available, I'd expect West Virginia to look more like the teams Pitt has stomped to open the season than the true rival they've historically been.
Over/Under Pick for Pittsburgh vs West Virginia
- Under 57.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Mountaineers aren't likely to contribute much to the point total here, but they shouldn't let the Panthers run away with it either. They held Ohio to 17 points last week, despite giving up 429 yards, and picked off Bobcats quarterback Peter Navarro three times. Pittsburgh racked up points against Duquesne and Central Michigan, but those numbers figure to come down as they get into the Power 4 stretch of their 2025 schedule. I'd take the under here.
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