Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Northwestern Wildcats will host the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 8, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Purdue vs. Northwestern prediction. Purdue has fallen into a four-game losing streak after last week's road loss to Minnesota, while Northwestern made college football headlines last week with a 22-21 road win against Penn State. Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 18.
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Purdue beats itself in 27-20 Minnesota loss
The Purdue Boilermakers are 2-4 heading into Week 8, with only Wisconsin separating them from the bottom of the conference standings. They're one of five teams in the conference still searching for their first Big Ten win, having lost to USC (33-17), Illinois (43-27), and Minnesota (27-20) in their last three conference games. Last Saturday's loss at Minnesota was the closest the Boilermakers have been to a win so far, but their losing streak grew to four games anyway after the Golden Gophers scored two touchdowns to complete a fourth-quarter comeback.
This wasn't a fun game for Boilermaker fans–the box score reflects a team that did more than enough to beat the Golden Gophers, but did even more to beat themselves. Purdue outgained Minnesota 456 yards to 262, 25 first downs to 17, and led the game 20-13 at the end of the third quarter. The Golden Gophers' game-winning touchdown was thrown by Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne–it was intercepted by Koi Perich, who returned it for the touchdown that put Minnesota up 27-20 with just over seven minutes to play. Purdue burned most of the remaining clock on the ensuing drive, going 68 yards on 15 plays in just under six minutes, but the drive ended in a turnover on downs at the Minnesota 7-yard line.
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Browne finished the game having completed 21 of 40 passes for 203 yards and two interceptions. The Boilermakers committed four turnovers overall between Browne's interceptions, a third interception on a trick play from lead back Devin Mockobee, and a lost fumble from receiver Corey Smith. They won't beat Northwestern–or anybody else–if they put on a similar showing in Week 8.
Mockobee leads the ground attack with 402 yards and four TDs (3.9ypc). Browne is completing 62.5% of his passes for 1,541 yards with seven TD and seven picks. Purdue is throwing for 270.5 yards per game (33rd) and rushing for 138.2 yards per contest (91st). Their biggest issues are their pass defense, which allows 245.7 yards per game (107th). They also rank tied for 133rd in turnover margin at -1.8.
Northwestern upsets Penn State; 3-0 in last three games
The Northwestern Wildcats probably aren't a top-shelf team in the crowded Big Ten, but they're sixth in the standings at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference play. They've extended their winning streak to three games with last week's 22-21 upset win on the road against Penn State–a team that, while reeling in their own right, was still projected to beat Northwestern by 21 points on the spread. The Wildcats' win meant the end of the James Franklin era at Happy Valley
Northwestern scored first against Penn State and kept things close throughout, never trailing by more than five points. Senior quarterback Preston Stone completed 17 of 26 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown, and sophomore lead back Caleb Komolafe racked up 72 yards and the game-winning touchdown on 19 carries. Northwestern only outgained Penn State 282-274 in total yardage, but converted ten more first downs, won the turnover battle 2-1, and lost only ten yards on two penalties while the Nittany Lions lost 71 yards on six.
The Wildcats rank only 110th nationally among FBS teams with 181.3 passing yards per game, but they're 46th in rushing yards (183.2) and 24th in points allowed (17.7) per game. They'll likely run into trouble against the high-powered offenses in the Big Ten down the stretch, but they'll be a tough out for most of their opponents.
Purdue vs. Northwestern Pick
Spread Pick for Purdue vs. Northwestern
- Northwestern -3.5 (-105) (5 Units)
The Wildcats are 4-1 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They've covered in three of the four home games they've played so far, including a meeting with the No. 4 Oregon Ducks in September that Northwestern kept within 20 points. Purdue's turnover situation is a problem and will continue to be in this contest. Purdue is 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games, and this game marks the narrowest margin they've been asked to cover as underdogs thus far in 2025. I don't see a strong case for the Boilermakers here.
Over/Under Pick for Purdue vs. Northwestern
- Under 46.5 (-105) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 5-1 in Northwestern games this season, only failing to hit in their 42-7 route of UL Monroe–a game they entered with an exceptionally low 42.0 total line. The Under is 4-2 in Purdue games, only failing to hit in their 30-56 loss to No. 24 Notre Dame and their 27-43 loss to No. 22 Illinois. Additionally, the Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams–failing to hit in their 2024 meeting that ended 26-20 in overtime, barely getting by the low pregame total of 44.0 points. Northwestern ranks 24th nationally in points allowed; I don't think Purdue will challenge that.
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