Purdue vs. Minnesota Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Purdue Boilermakers (2-3, 0-2 B1G) have dropped their last three games, and they’ll try to get back on track when they head to the Twin Cities to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2, 1-1 B1G) in a conference clash. We’ve got you covered with our Purdue vs. Minnesota prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 ET from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Boilermakers Drop Third Straight Game
This is the first season for the Purdue Boilermakers under Coach Barry Odom, who comes over from UNLV after going 19-8 (12-3 MW) during his tenure. So far, the Boilermakers are a modest 2-3 under Coach Odo, but you can tell that this is a program in the midst of a rebuild. Purdue started out 2-0 with wins over Ball State (31-0) and Southern Illinois (34-17), but they’ve now lost three consecutive games to USC (33-17), #24 Notre Dame (56-30), and #22 Illinois (43-27), most recently. From a sports betting perspective, the Boilermakers are 2-3 ATS and they’ve gone 3-2 to the under.
In terms of personnel, it’s QB Ryan Browne leading the offense this season. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 1,338 yards on a 62.2% completion rate, adding seven touchdowns and five interceptions. RB Devin Mockobee has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 304 yards and four touchdowns on 81 carries (3.8 YPC). WRs Michael Jackson III (305 yards, 1 TD) and Nitro Tuggle (224 yards, 3 TD) are the top targets out wide.
- Offensively, the Boilermakers are scoring 26.3 points per game (66th), while averaging 405.5 yards per week (43rd).
- Defensively, they are 109th in the country this year, conceding 33.0 points per game. They’re allowing 427.3 yards per contest, which is 104th.
Golden Gophers Get Hammered by the Buckeyes
Meanwhile, this is the ninth season of the P.J. Fleck era for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and the program has essentially been a middling competitor in the Big Ten during his tenure. They went 11-2 (7-2 B1G) in 2019, but are still just 61-41 (35-37 B1G) under Coach Fleck in totality. That includes this year’s 3-2 mark, which has seen Minnesota bag wins over Buffalo (23-10), Northwestern State (66-0), and Rutgers (31-28). They’ve suffered losses to California (27-14) and #1 Ohio State (42-3), more recently. The Gophers are 1-4 ATS this season and 3-2 to the over.
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QB Drake Lindsey is the man under center in the Twin Cities this season, and he has logged 1,052 passing yards on a 64.3% completion rate, adding seven touchdowns and two picks. Lindsey’s top target in the receiving game is WR Javon Tracy, who has 204 yards and two touchdowns on 12 receptions. RB Fame Ijeboi has spearheaded the rushing attack, registering 225 yards and a touchdown on 48 totes (4.7 YPC).
- Minnesota’s offense has been subpar this season, ranking 110th in scoring (17.8 PPG), while putting up 325.5 yards per game (106th).
- On the defensive side, the Gophers are 73rd this season, allowing 26.8 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 37th, conceding 340.0 yards per contest.
Purdue vs. Minnesota Pick
Spread Pick for Purdue vs. Minnesota
- Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 (-110) (5 units)
I have absolutely no interest in laying more than a touchdown’s worth of points with this Minnesota team. Their offense has been abysmal, averaging only 17.8 points per game (110th) against FBS-level opposition this season. The Gophers also have a negative turnover margin per game mark of -0.3 (74th) this season.
On the flip side, we saw Purdue hang tough with Illinois for a while before ultimately losing by 16 points in a 43-27 contest. The Boilermakers’ strength is its offense, and if I can take the better offense in the game while also getting 7+ points, it feels like a no-brainer. I think Purdue keeps this one inside the number against this Minnesota squad that’s just 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
Over/Under Pick for Purdue vs. Minnesota
- Over 50.5 (-115) (5 units)
In my opinion, a good comparison for this game is the Rutgers vs. Minnesota contest, which eventually landed 31-28 in favor of the Gophers. Purdue’s defense is a joke, allowing 33.0 points per game (109th) against FBS-level opponents and more than 420 yards per contest. We saw Minnesota’s offense break out against the banged-up, lowly Rutgers defense, and I do anticipate them replicating that against a bottom-tier Purdue bunch.
On the flip side, Purdue has a veteran quarterback in redshirt sophomore Ryan Browne. He has led the Boilermakers to scoring at least 27 points in four of its five games this season. Minnesota’s defense is just a respectable group, so I ultimately expect to see both offenses score at will. The over is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings, so I’ll ride with that trend to continue.
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