Purdue vs Penn State Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026

Penn State is still looking for its first Big Ten victory as Purdue heads to Beaver Stadium on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 3-4 overall and 0-4 in conference play, leaving them 16th in the Big Ten after losing 21-18 at Michigan. Purdue is also 3-4 but sits eighth in the conference at 2-2 following a 38-26 loss to Washington. Kickoff is at 4:15 pm ET on BTN, with temperatures around 66 degrees. Penn State is favored by 7.5 points, and the total is 54.5. Check our free NCAAF picks for Saturday's other games.

Purdue Has Shown Some Improvement

Purdue's last game against Washington ended in a 38-26 defeat, but the Boilermakers had won their previous two. They handled Minnesota 41-13 and picked up a 24-17 road victory over Illinois. Those results came after difficult losses to Notre Dame and UCLA, when Purdue conceded 49 and 52 points. The Boilermakers have certainly had their defensive problems, although scoring hasn't been quite as difficult recently. They've put up at least 24 points in four of their last five outings.

Ryan Browne has completed 65.6% of his passes for 1,822 yards, throwing 10 touchdowns against three interceptions. Asaad Waseem has been his main receiving option, collecting 588 yards on 38 catches. Fame Ijeboi has done most of the work on the ground, rushing for 568 yards and nine touchdowns. Purdue's defense has struggled to create pressure, recording only eight sacks. Jojo Hayden leads the team with 48 tackles and two interceptions, but the Boilermakers will need more help around him against Penn State.

Injuries: K. Fox is out.

Penn State Looking for a Conference Win

Four straight Big Ten defeats have left Penn State in an unfamiliar position. The Nittany Lions came close at Michigan on October 17 but lost 21-18. Before that, USC won 31-23 at Beaver Stadium, while Northwestern handed Penn State a 34-13 defeat. Wisconsin also visited and left with a 24-20 victory. Penn State's last win came against Buffalo on September 19, when the Nittany Lions scored 55 points. They've managed only 74 points across the four games since then.

Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,664 yards and 12 touchdowns, although five interceptions have hurt his numbers. Chase Sowell leads the receivers with 510 yards, while Koby Howard has gained 344 on only 12 catches. The rushing attack hasn't provided much relief. Carson Hansen leads Penn State with 278 yards, and the team averages 3.8 per carry. Tony Rojas has been a bright spot defensively, recording 55 tackles, five sacks and two interceptions. He could cause problems for Browne if Purdue struggles to protect its quarterback.

Injuries: B. Kortovich, D. Sheffey, Koby Howard and M. Granville are out.

Key To The Game

Purdue has shown more offensive promise in recent weeks, but keeping Browne upright will be important against Rojas. The Boilermakers have allowed 13 sacks, and Penn State has recorded nine defensively. Ijeboi could also make a difference near the goal line, having scored nine rushing touchdowns. Penn State needs better production from its running backs to avoid putting everything on Becht. Neither defense has been particularly convincing lately, so the team that avoids turnovers may have the advantage in a close fourth quarter.

Purdue vs Penn State Game Pick

• Purdue Boilermakers +7.5

Penn State hasn't won a conference game, which makes giving away more than a touchdown difficult to justify. The Nittany Lions have lost four straight, and three of those defeats came by eight points or fewer. Purdue has beaten Minnesota comfortably and won at Illinois, showing it can compete against Big Ten opposition. Browne has been reasonably careful with the football, while Ijeboi gives Purdue a reliable scoring option. Penn State might finally end its losing streak at home, but I expect Purdue to keep this within one possession.

Purdue vs Penn State Over/Under Pick

• Under 54.5

Penn State's last four games have produced combined totals of 39, 54, 47 and 44 points. The Nittany Lions haven't scored more than 23 in any of those contests. Purdue has been more productive offensively, although its defense has also allowed plenty of points. The important difference here could be Penn State's difficulty running the ball. Becht may have to throw frequently, and that brings turnovers into play. Purdue should find some scoring opportunities, but I'm not expecting either offense to dominate. Under 54.5 is my selection.