Rice Owls vs. UTSA Roadrunners Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC The American Athletic Conference will be in San Antonio this Saturday when the Rice Owls (3-3, 1-2 AAC) travel to face the UTSA Roadrunners (2-3, 0-1 AAC) at the Alamodome. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on ESPNU. Both teams are coming off losses - Rice fell 27-21 to Florida Atlantic, while UTSA dropped a 27-21 decision to Temple. Before kickoff: NCAAF predictions for Rice Owls vs. UTSA Roadrunners in one clean snapshot.
Rice Leans On Ground Game To Control Tempo
Rice’s strength is its rushing attack, averaging 219.7 yards per game, good for 18th in the country. Running back Quinton Jackson leads with 481 yards and three touchdowns on 92 carries. Last week, Jackson posted 128 yards and a score against FAU. Quarterback Chase Jenkins has been effective, completing 68.6% of his passes for 520 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, while also contributing with his running. Jenkins ran for a touchdown and 20 yards in the loss to the Owls.
Offensively, Rice ranks 122nd nationally in total offense (312.8 yards per game), built around a methodical, clock-controlling ground game that averages over 32 minutes of possession. The Owls’ passing game is limited, producing only 93.2 yards per game, but receiver Drayden Dickmann has been reliable with 22 catches for 229 yards and three touchdowns.
Defensively, Rice has played well overall, allowing 344 yards per game, 59th in the country, and limiting opponents to 21.5 points per game. The secondary has been the stronger unit, giving up 191.3 yards per contest through the air. However, third-down defense remains a glaring issue; opponents convert 51.1% of their attempts, one of the worst marks in the country.
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Injuries are piling up, though. Fourteen players are listed as questionable or out, including key linemen Carson Morgan, Luke Needham, and David Stickle, as well as receiver Landon Ransom-Goelz.
UTSA Looking To Reignite Offense At Home
UTSA’s offense has been balanced, averaging 385.6 total yards per game, with 206.8 through the air and 178.8 on the ground. Quarterback Owen McCown has been solid, throwing for 990 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions at a 63.2% completion rate. His command of the offense keeps the Roadrunners competitive in nearly every game. The real strength, however, has been running back Robert Henry Jr., who has piled up 666 yards and seven touchdowns on 80 carries, ranking among the conference’s best at 8.3 yards per carry.
Receiver Devin McCuin leads the passing attack with 28 receptions for 277 yards and three touchdowns, while AJ Wilson is the deep threat, recording 67 yards on three catches last week against Temple.
Defensively, UTSA gives up 385.2 yards per game, including 267.2 through the air (124th nationally). The run defense is much stronger, allowing just 118 yards per game, which will be key against Rice’s strong ground game. Linebacker Shad Banks Jr. leads the team with 38 tackles, while Nnanna Anyanwu has recorded four sacks. The Roadrunners’ biggest challenge remains in coverage, where they’ve allowed too many big plays. UTSA is allowing 29.6 points per game, nearly identical to its scoring average of 29.2 PPG. The Roadrunners’ red zone offense has been solid, converting 86.7% of its trips into points, but the defense has struggled to get off the field.
Six players appear on UTSA’s injury list, all of whom are listed as questionable at the time this article was written.
Rice Owls vs. UTSA Roadrunners Pick
Spread Pick for Rice vs. UTSA
- Â Rice +11.5 (4 Units)
This number seems a bit inflated, given how similarly the teams have performed. Rice’s run game should shorten the contest and limit UTSA’s possessions, a valuable advantage for an underdog. The Owls’ defense has quietly ranked inside the top 60 in yards allowed, while UTSA has been inconsistent defensively, particularly against the pass. If Jackson and Jenkins sustain drives and avoid turnovers, Rice can remain within single digits. UTSA’s stronger run defense may slow the Owls down, but Rice’s ability to control tempo and +4 turnover margin are other reasons I feel they will cover the inflated spread.
Over/Under Pick for Rice vs. UTSA
- Under 48.5 (4 Units)
Rice ranks 113th nationally in scoring (20.5 PPG) and uses ball control, while UTSA’s pace has slowed from prior seasons, averaging under 30 points per game. The Roadrunners have given up 29.6 per game, but their run defense should force the Owls into longer, time-consuming drives. Both teams prefer methodical approaches rather than explosive tempo, putting the emphasis on sustained drives rather than quick strikes.
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