Rice vs Fresno State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Rice Owls travel to Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California, to face the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET with national coverage on The CW. Rice enters at 1-2 following a 28-21 home loss to Western Michigan, while Fresno State is 2-1 after its trip to San Jose State. Rice is making its second significant road trip of the season after previously visiting Notre Dame, while Fresno State returns home for its final nonconference game before beginning Pac-12 play. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Rice Needs to Rediscover Its Opening-Week Defense

Rice opened the season with an impressive 31-3 victory over Houston Christian before experiencing a dramatic increase in competition at Notre Dame, where the Owls lost 52-0. Rice then returned home and suffered a much more competitive 28-21 loss to Western Michigan, dropping to 1-2.

The Western Michigan result was disappointing because it represented a much more realistic measuring stick than Notre Dame. Rice was competitive enough to stay within one possession but could not make the plays necessary to finish the game. The Owls have now lost consecutive games after their convincing opening victory.

Travel also becomes a factor. Rice has to go from Houston to Fresno for a 10:00 PM ET kickoff, and Fresno State has already demonstrated what it can do against a less physical opponent at home. Rice needs to establish a slower pace, protect possession and avoid allowing Fresno State’s crowd to become a factor through early explosive plays.

Fresno State Has a Major Home-Field Opportunity

Fresno State opened with a difficult trip to USC and was shut out 39-0, but the Bulldogs responded emphatically by beating Sacramento State 49-3 at Valley Children’s Stadium. Their third game came on the road at San Jose State before returning home for Rice.

The contrast between Fresno State’s first two games is useful. Against nationally ranked USC, the Bulldogs could not establish anything offensively. Against Sacramento State, Fresno State dominated from the beginning. Rice falls somewhere between those opponents, but its 52-0 loss at Notre Dame demonstrates the difficulty it can have when facing a significant athletic disadvantage.

Fresno State also has the stronger situational setup. The Bulldogs are at home while Rice makes a long trip west following a disappointing home defeat. Fresno State’s defense should have enough of an advantage to force Rice into long-yardage situations, and the Bulldogs should find considerably more offensive room than they did at USC.

Rice vs Fresno State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Fresno State -10.5 or Better

Rice has lost consecutive games and now faces a difficult cross-country-style trip into one of the tougher Group of Five home environments. Fresno State already won its first home game 49-3, and Rice has demonstrated vulnerability when the opponent possesses a substantial athletic advantage. If the spread stays around 10 points rather than climbing through two touchdowns, Fresno State is the preferred side.

Pick: Under 51.5 or Higher

Rice has scored 31, zero and 21 through three games, while Fresno State has already posted both a shutout loss and a 49-point victory. The Bulldogs should control this matchup, but Rice’s best path involves slowing the game rather than engaging in a shootout. Fresno State winning something around 31-17 would keep this beneath a total in the low fifties.

Final Picks: Fresno State -10.5 or Better and Under 51.5 or Higher