Rice vs. Navy Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 27, 2025
In a big AAC clash at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Navy (3-0) puts their perfect record on the line playing host to Rice (3-1). Navy should be well-rested for this game after not playing last week while Rice did and got their first conference win. Here in this Rice vs. Navy prediction you can find the full score info as well as other free NCAAF picks.
Navy comes into this game as a big 14.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 45.5.
Been a While for Rice
Rice has won three of their first four games, and that has not happened since the 2001 season. In their last game, they beat Charlotte 28-17 for their first AAC win and in the W, they only outgained the 49ers by nine yards (343 yards to 334 yards) but forced the only turnover and rushed for 255 yards. Chase Jenkins was 8/11 for 87 yards and a TD and was one of three players who rushed for 71 yards and also had a rushing TD. The Owls covered as a 2.5-point favorite after failing to cover the spread in their previous two games.
- Rice ranks dead last in the nation in passing yards per game, but ranks 15th, averaging 246.3 rushing yards per game.
- Jenkins (269 yards 2 TD 1 INT) has passed for 87 yards in the last two games, where he has totaled 195 rushing yards.
- Quinton Jackson (293 yards 2 TD) is one of three players who have at least 215 rushing yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
- Rice may want to go to the air more in this game ,facing a Navy defense that only ranks 100th in pass defense but 36th in run defense.
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Navy is the Top Dog on the Ground
Navy has won all three of their games by double digits and they have the nation’s top-ranked run game, averaging 375.3 rushing yards per game. In their last game, they moved to 2-0 in AAC play with a 42-23 road win over Tulsa, where they outgained the Golden Hurricane 461 yards to 329 yards and while they committed three turnovers, they forced two. Blake Horvath passed for 94 yards with a TD and two picks and rushed for 159 yards with a score and Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich each rushed for 72 yards, combining for three TD. The Midshipmen failed to cover as a 13-point favorite after covering in their first two games.
- Like Rice, Navy is all about the run only ranking 131st in the nation in passing yards per game.
- Horvath (328 yards 3 TD 2 INT) has passed for 262 yards in the last two games, with only six completions in each one.
- Navy has three players, including Horvath, who has rushed for at least 209 yards, led by Tecza (272 yards 4 TD), who is averaging six yards per carry.
- The Midshipmen will be facing a Rice defense that ranks 63rd in the nation, defending the run and a legit 28th defending the pass.
Rice vs. Navy Pick
Rice vs. Navy
- Rice +14.5 (+4 Units)
Both of these teams are off to good starts this season, and last season Rice beat Navy handily, only allowing 10 points. It is pretty obvious that the run game will be important in this game and the Midshipmen have played the better run defense so far, but not by much. Each team has also passed some in the last two games, and Rice may do that more in this game, facing a Midshipmen pass defense that only ranks 100th in the nation. In terms of the Rice vs. Navy prediction, each team can run the rock, and while Navy may have the better game on the ground, the Owls will keep it close, which is why they are the pick to cover the double-digit spread.
Over/Under Pick for Rice vs. Navy
- Under 45.5 (+4 Units)
When these teams met last season, the total went under, and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. Both teams are very run-centric, but each has been legit passing the rock, some in the last two games. Still, each team will rely heavily on the run, and because of that, the clock will continue to run all game long. Neither team will put up a high total in this game, which will be pretty close. While this will not be a defensive game with both teams primarily running the rock, it will be a lower-scoring affair, so the Under is the way to go.
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