Rice vs Notre Dame Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Rice Owls travel to Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, to face the No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET with coverage on NBC and Peacock. Both teams enter at 1-0 after convincing season-opening victories. Notre Dame is a massive 44.5-point favorite, with the total set at 54.5. Check out our free college football picks throughout the season.

Rice Brings a Powerful Ground Game to South Bend

Rice couldn't have asked for a much better start to the 2026 season. The Owls defeated Houston Christian 31-3 at Rice Stadium, turning a 3-0 deficit into 31 unanswered points and holding their opponent scoreless over the final three quarters.

The most impressive part of the performance was Rice's rushing attack. The Owls piled up 465 rushing yards, their highest total on the ground since 2004. Tyvonn Byars led the way with 104 yards on 15 carries, while Jacurri Brown added 98 rushing yards. Quinton Jackson scored twice on the ground as Rice consistently controlled the line of scrimmage.

Rice also controlled possession for nearly 40 minutes and limited Houston Christian to 244 total yards. That formula becomes important against Notre Dame. The Owls aren't going to win a shootout with one of the country's top-ranked teams, but a productive ground game can shorten the contest, drain clock and reduce the number of possessions available to the favorite. That's particularly significant with the market asking Notre Dame to cover more than six touchdowns.

Notre Dame Dominates Wisconsin in Season Opener

Notre Dame looked every bit like a national contender in its opener. The Fighting Irish defeated Wisconsin 41-13 at Lambeau Field, pulling away after taking a 17-10 advantage into halftime.

CJ Carr completed 17 of 27 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns, while Aneyas Williams rushed for 90 yards and two scores. Notre Dame finished with 408 yards of total offense and averaged 6.3 yards per play against a Big Ten opponent.

The defense was equally impressive. Notre Dame limited Wisconsin to 13 points and 275 total yards while forcing three turnovers. DJ McKinney returned an interception 55 yards for a touchdown as the Irish defense helped turn a competitive first half into a comfortable victory.

The level of competition drops substantially this week. Notre Dame went from facing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field to hosting Rice in its home opener. The Irish should have a considerable advantage in overall talent and depth, and their ability to dominate defensively makes it difficult to envision Rice consistently sustaining drives.

Rice vs Notre Dame Picks and Prediction

Pick: Rice +44.5

Notre Dame should win this game comfortably, but Rice +44.5 is an enormous number against a team built to shorten games. Rice just rushed for 465 yards and controlled possession for nearly 40 minutes in its opener. Replicating those rushing numbers against Notre Dame is unrealistic, but the offensive philosophy itself matters when we're getting more than six touchdowns. Notre Dame could lead comfortably throughout and still fail to cover. Something like 38-7, 41-10 or 42-7 would represent a dominant Irish victory while cashing the Rice ticket. At this number, take Rice +44.5.

Pick: Under 54.5

The side and total are connected. Rice's best chance of remaining within 44.5 points is using its rushing attack to shorten the game, while Notre Dame just held Wisconsin to 13 points and forced three turnovers. Rice's defense also allowed only three points in its opener. Notre Dame could account for most of the scoring, but getting beyond 54.5 becomes difficult if Rice struggles to reach double digits and successfully burns clock on the ground. A game in the 38-7 or 41-7 range would keep the total comfortably below the number. Take Under 54.5.

Final Picks: Rice +44.5 and Under 54.5