Richmond vs NC State Picks and Prediction for Friday September 11 2026

The Richmond Spiders travel to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina, to face the NC State Wolfpack on Friday, September 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU. Richmond enters at 2-0 after victories over Bucknell and Howard, while NC State is 0-1 after suffering a 34-8 loss at Virginia in its season opener. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Richmond Brings an Efficient Passing Attack to Raleigh

No. 23 Richmond opened with a 35-14 victory over Bucknell before going on the road and beating Howard 28-21. The Spiders built a 20-0 halftime advantage against Howard and finished with 300 total yards while possessing the football for 32:30. Richmond's defense held Howard to 240 yards, recorded four sacks and forced two turnovers.

Quarterback Ashten Snelsire completed 19 of 35 passes for 261 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against Howard. Freshman Bryce Allen has also made an immediate impact, producing seven catches for 143 yards and three touchdowns through his first two collegiate games. Those numbers give Richmond a legitimate passing threat entering its toughest game of the young season.

The weakness was the rushing game. Richmond managed only 39 net rushing yards on 32 attempts against Howard and allowed four sacks. That is a major concern against NC State because the Spiders cannot afford to become completely one-dimensional against an ACC defense.

NC State Needs a Strong Response at Home

NC State couldn't have asked for a much worse beginning to the season, losing 34-8 at Virginia. CJ Bailey was held to 84 passing yards and led the Wolfpack with only 33 rushing yards. NC State now gets nearly two weeks to regroup before playing its home opener at Carter-Finley Stadium.

The Wolfpack were much more productive over the full 2025 season, averaging 30.2 points and 392.8 yards per game, including 245.7 passing yards and 147.1 rushing yards. That provides some reason to expect a significant offensive rebound rather than treating the Virginia performance as NC State's new baseline.

NC State also has history on its side. The Wolfpack lead the series with Richmond 18-1-1 according to NC State's records and won the most recent meeting 23-21 in 2013. This year's Richmond team is already 2-0, however, and has enough defensive and passing-game production to make NC State earn the victory.

Richmond vs NC State Picks and Prediction

Pick: NC State -24.5 or Better

With conventional sportsbook odds not consistently available yet, NC State -24.5 or better is my target number. The Wolfpack should respond much better offensively at home, and Richmond's inability to run against Howard is a major concern against an ACC defensive front. Snelsire and the Spiders' passing game can create some resistance, but NC State has significant advantages in depth and overall personnel. If the market opens at -24.5 or lower, take NC State.

Pick: Under 49.5

For the total, Under 49.5 is my target. Richmond's defense has shown enough to make NC State work for points, while the Spiders' 39 rushing yards against Howard make sustained offensive success difficult to project against the Wolfpack. NC State also scored only eight points in its opener, so there isn't enough evidence yet to assume an immediate offensive explosion. Something around 31-10 or 34-10 fits the matchup. Take the Under if the total is set at 49.5 or higher.

Final Picks: NC State -24.5 or better and Under 49.5 or higher