Sacramento State vs Fresno State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Sacramento State Hornets travel to Valley Children's Stadium in Fresno, California, to face the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Sacramento State enters at 1-1 after routing Mississippi Valley State 52-0, while Fresno State is 0-1 following a 39-0 loss at No. 14 USC. Fresno State is currently favored by 18.5 points with the total set at 47.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Sacramento State Responds With a Dominant Shutout

Sacramento State earned the first victory of its FBS era in emphatic fashion, crushing Mississippi Valley State 52-0. The Hornets scored in every quarter, led 31-0 at halftime and completely controlled the game on both sides of the football.

Jackson Sharman was excellent in his first start for Sacramento State, completing 18 of 28 passes for 247 yards and four touchdowns. Three of those touchdown passes went to Matt Coleman, who finished with six receptions for 141 yards and tied the school record with three receiving touchdowns.

Sacramento State finished with 453 total yards, including 250 passing and 203 rushing. The Hornets collected 26 first downs and converted seven of 14 third-down attempts while possessing the football for more than 33 minutes.

The defense was equally impressive. Mississippi Valley State managed only 147 yards, six first downs and 43 passing yards. Sacramento State held the Delta Devils to 2.8 yards per play and also blocked a punt.

The competition becomes substantially stronger in Fresno, but the Hornets enter with confidence and demonstrated enough offensive balance to make laying nearly three touchdowns with Fresno State uncomfortable.

Fresno State Looks to Recover From USC Shutout

Fresno State's season opener couldn't have gone much worse. The Bulldogs traveled to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and were shut out 39-0 by No. 14 USC.

Fresno State generated only 116 total yards, including 77 through the air and 39 on the ground. The Bulldogs finished with nine first downs and averaged only 2.6 yards per offensive play.

Jayden Mandal completed seven passes for 77 yards and threw an interception. The Bulldogs also surrendered two safeties as USC's defensive front consistently overwhelmed Fresno State's protection.

There were a couple of positives defensively. Fresno State forced two turnovers and prevented USC from turning every possession into points, but the Bulldogs still surrendered 552 yards while possessing the ball for only 21:08.

USC is obviously a dramatically stronger opponent than Sacramento State, so Fresno State should improve substantially in its home opener. Still, the Bulldogs now have to cover nearly three touchdowns against a Hornets team coming off one of the more impressive performances of its young FBS era.

Sacramento State vs Fresno State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Sacramento State +18.5

Sacramento State +18.5 is my preferred side. Fresno State should perform much better after escaping USC's elite defense, but laying nearly three touchdowns with an offense that just generated 116 yards is difficult. Sacramento State produced 453 yards in its 52-0 victory and showed balance with 250 passing yards and 203 on the ground. The Hornets don't need to seriously threaten an outright upset to cash this ticket. If Sharman can avoid turnovers and Sacramento State generates a couple of scoring drives, this number provides plenty of room. Take Sacramento State +18.5.

Pick: Under 47.5

The Under 47.5 is my preferred total. Fresno State still needs to prove its offense can generate consistent scoring after being completely shut down by USC, while Sacramento State's defense just posted a shutout. The Bulldogs should have considerably more success at home, but a game around 27-14 or 30-14 would still comfortably stay below the number. Sacramento State's improvement makes this more competitive than the spread suggests without necessarily creating a shootout. Take Under 47.5.

Final Picks: Sacramento State +18.5 and Under 47.5