Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies Picks and Prediction for Thursday, October 2, 2025
Use Code SSWC Get ready for an interesting Week 6 Conference USA clash as the Sam Houston Bearkats face off against the New Mexico State Aggies in our Bearkats vs. Aggies prediction. Set to unfold at Aggie Memorial Stadium on October 2nd at 9:00 PM ET, this game, airing on CBSSN, promises an intriguing matchup with two teams currently in different spots as Sam Houston is 0-4 (0-1 CUSA) while New Mexico State is 2-2 (0-1). Last year, Sam Houston took this game 31-11 as a 15-point home favorite. With these teams looking to step up in this matchup, let's dive into the stats, injuries, and key insights to preview what's in store. Rivalries, tempo, trenches — NCAAF picks for Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies.
Bearkats Looking for First Win
The Sam Houston Bearkats are still seeking their first win of the season, coming off a 55-0 road loss to the Texas Longhorns on Saturday. They are currently 129th in the NCAA with 16.2 points per game scored. Sam Houston’s offense is led by quarterback Hunter Watson, who has been able to complete just 43-of-77 passes for 396 yards with zero passing touchdowns and two interceptions to begin the season. However, he has been able to run the ball effectively, with 39 rushing attempts for 140 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Their total offense stands at 268.8 yards per game (133rd in NCAA), with the rushing attack only able to produce 106.5 yards (119th). The passing game has been unable to get much going either with an average of 160.2 yards per game (120th).
Defensively, the Bearkats are giving up 42.8 points per game right now, which is 134th. The team has struggled as they are allowing 483.5 total yards per game (131st), with their ability to stop the run being a massive concern, allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt. There needs to be a lot of improvement for the program to get its first win of the season. The Bearkats opened the season in conference play with a 41-24 loss at Western Kentucky.
Injury Report for Sam Houston
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- Offensive guard Zo’Maryon Bryan: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman Caius Coy: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Quarterback Landyn Lock: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Alton McCaskill: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Ah’Marion Gaines-Smith: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Linebacker Jayveon Johnson: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman Anthony Shorter: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Cornerback Quan Williams: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Cornerback Dravon Wilson: Undisclosed (Questionable)
Aggies Looking to Snap Losing Streak
The New Mexico State Aggies are looking to get back on track as they are on a two-game losing streak after coming off a 38-20 road loss against the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday and a 49-14 loss at Louisiana Tech on September 13. They had a bye after that loss, but the week off didn't help them against rival New Mexico. Logan Fife threw for 255 yards with a pick for the Aggies, who gave up 344 yards in the air.
Their offense has been unable to get going as they are scoring 18.5 points per game this year, placing them 120th in college football. Fife has been mediocre under center as he completed 79-of-146 passes (54%) for 1,017 yards with five touchdown passes to four interceptions. As a team, they are struggling to move the ball as they are ranked 92nd nationally in total yards, averaging 302.0 per game. New Mexico State’s passing offense, which averages 262.2 yards per game, should put them in a great position to move the ball down the field as they are 43rd in the sport. The rushing game, contributing 39.8 yards per game (136th nationally), has been unable to move the football on the ground.
The Aggies’ defense is currently 84th in the sport with 26.0 points allowed per game. They are also allowing way too much offense against them as they are 114th with 420.0 total yards per game. Their pass defense has been unable to force incompletions as the Aggies are 111th in the NCAA, as they are allowing the opposition to complete 65.9% of their passes.
Injury Report for New Mexico State
- Wide receiver Terrione Graves: Undisclosed (Probable)
- Wide receiver AJ Williams: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Linebacker Sone Aupiu: Lower Body (Questionable)
- Running back Dijon Stanley: Concussion (OUT)
- Offensive guard Kai Wheeler: Concussion (OUT)
- Linebacker Tyler Martinez: Lower Body (OUT)
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies Pick
Spread Pick for Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State
- New Mexico State Aggies +105 (4 units)
It is way too difficult to believe that the winless Sam Houston Bearkats are going to be able to provide enough offense in order to win this game, as they have not done so at any point this season. New Mexico State looked good in the first half last week, holding a 17-14 lead before collapsing in the second half. They gave up two late touchdowns after trailing by just four in the fourth quarter. Sam Houston has not really looked effective in any phase of the game, while New Mexico State has looked like it can at least run the football. They should be able to continue that this week going up against one of the weakest running defenses in the entire sport. All in all, go with a home underdog to win against arguably the worst college football team this season.
Over/Under Pick for Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State
- Under 53.5 (5 units)
The Bearkats have failed to reach at least 25 points in any of their first four games, which is less than their implied total with this game. Even if this game is close, do you have any belief that Sam Houston can stop the New Mexico State running game? The Bearkats cannot convert on third downs as they are only 7-for-51 (13.73%), while the Aggies are a mediocre 21-for-61 (34.43%) on third-down attempts. Neither defense has shown the ability to get stops, but if these offenses are as one-dimensional as the stats look, under 53.5 total points is the only bet we can realistically make here.
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