Sam Houston vs Missouri State Picks and Prediction for Tuesday October 27 2026
Conference USA foes will square off on Tuesday night, when the Sam Houston Bearkats take on the Missouri State Bears from Robert W. Plaster Stadium. The opening kickoff will take place at 8:00 pm EST on Tuesday October 27, 2026. The Bears opened as a 5.5 point home favorite and the total is 50.5. The game will be televised on ESPN2. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.
Sam Houston unable to move the ball
The Sam Houston Bearkats are playing in their fourth season of FBS football and 9-18 in Conference USA all-time. The Bearkats (1-6) won ten games in 2024, but have lost 16 of their next 19 games with Phil Longo as the head coach. On Wednesday, Sam Houston converted just three of 13 third-down attempts during a 30-24 home loss versus New Mexico State.
Sam Houston scored 140 seconds into the game on a blocked punt return touchdown by Railyn Adams. Sophomore QB Landyn Locke completed 18 of 31 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown. Tim Burns Jr. added a game-high 117 receiving yards and a score for the Bearkats.
Phil Longo was previously the offensive coordinator for North Carolina and Wisconsin, but has not been able to get the offense on track. The Bearkats are at the bottom of the conference in total offense (328.3 ypg) and scoring (20.1 ppg). Locke has thrown for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns while being sacked 18 times.
Missouri State no resistance on defense
The Missouri State Bears won seven games in their first season of FBS football and finished with a 5-3 record in the Conference USA. The Bears (2-5) started the 2026 campaign with a 50-0 loss at Texas A&M, but were competitive in a ten-point loss at SMU. On Tuesday, Missouri State surrendered 37 points during the second half of a 61-38 road loss against Delaware.
Duke transfer Henry Belin IV got his second start for Missouri State at quarterback. Belin IV had no problem moving the ball against the Delaware secondary for 337 yards and two touchdowns. Bruising RB Connor Lair added 85 rushing yards and a pair of scores for the Bears.
Missouri State struggles on both sides of the ball. The Bears are a middle of the pack Conference USA offense (367.6 ypg) and are scoring a shade above 24 points per game. Missouri State owns the worst defense in the conference and is giving up an alarming 34.9 points on average.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State Picks and Prediction
Pick: Sam Houston +5.5
These two programs split their only two meetings, but have not squared off since becoming members of Conference USA. Missouri State is bad on defense and has surrendered at least 30 points in each of their five losses this season. Sam Houston has battled on defense and that makes taking the points appealing. Take the Bearkats to steal a victory on the road.
Pick: Over 50.5
Sam Houston head coach Phil Longo was known for his uptempo offense at his previous stops, but does not have the personnel to run his system. The Bearkats rank 94th nationally in seconds per play, but they will speed things up against a poor Missouri State defense. Sam Houston scored 24 points last week and will get to 30 in this spot. Take the over.