Sam Houston vs. Texas Picks and Predictions, Saturday September 20, 2025
Through three weeks, the 2025 college football season has been full of ups and downs, shocks and surprises, and on Saturday, we could be in for another with our Sam Houston Bearcats vs. Texas Longhorns prediction.
The Sam Houston Bearkats (0-3) have struggled mightily to start the 2025 campaign, and with neither side of the ball providing much confidence, they face their biggest test of the season on the road this week.
On Saturday, they battle the 8 Texas Longhorns (2-1), a team that has bounced back from a loss in week one to find their footing again, and with momentum building, this could end up being a very successful season for the Longhorns. Read on to see our Sam Houston Bearcats vs. Texas Longhorns prediction.
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Can Sam Houston pick up their first win of the season?
The Sam Houston Bearkats came into 2025 looking at their tough early-season schedule, and after three straight losses, they face their toughest competition of the season thus far, with the team combining for a -51 point differential through three games. On both sides of the ball, the Bearcats rank outside the top-100 in points and yards, meaning that coming into a matchup against a ranked opponent, they're vulnerable on both offense and defense as the team is yet to find its identity.
Unfortunately, QB play has been an issue for this team as well, as they have thrown just two TD's to three interceptions between three quarterbacks this season, and while the run game is solid, it's not a big enough threat to lead them to big-time victories yet. Last time out for Sam Houston was a tough loss to Hawai'i on the road, with the team managing just 238 yards of total offense as they fell 37-20 despite forcing two turnovers on the day. Sam Houston is allowing 38.7 points and 442.3 yards per game.
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Can Texas continue building their momentum?
After a tough loss in their first game against a ranked Ohio State team, the Texas Longhorns have found their rhythm as of late, going 2-0 against unranked opponents as they look to continue that against Sam Houston in week four. Offensively, Texas averages 383 yards a game this season, and with their defense ranking top-21 in both yards and points allowed per game, they're going to continue finding ways to win games this season.
Despite the success, it hasn't been the perfect start for Arch Manning, who has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio thus far in 2025, but with three extra TD's on the ground, he's providing Texas the dual-threat QB that could take them a very long way in 2025. Last time out for the Longhorns was a tidy win over UTEP, with Manning throwing for just 114 yards as the team limited their opponents to 259 yards on the day, with the Longhorns doing just enough to pick up the 27-10 victory. However, they did not cover the 41 points.
The Longhorns will be playing without starting running back CJ Baxter, who injured his hamstring on the first snap against UTEP.
Sam Houston vs. Texas pick
Money line pick for Sam Houston vs. Texas
- Texas -27.5 (5 units)
Unsurprisingly, the Texas Longhorns come into this one as overwhelming favorites, with the Sam Houston Bearkats are 0-3 to start the new season, being outscored by 17 against unranked opponents in all three of those. Their quarterback issues are not a good sign against a talented Texas defense.
On top of that, the Bearkats are 0-2 in games played on the road this season, and with Texas going 2-0 at home to start the season with back-to-back impressive wins coming into this one, expect a big Longhorns victory on Saturday at home.
Over/under pick for Sam Houston vs. Texas
- Under 55.5 (4 units)
On paper, neither of these teams are elite defensive units, but offensively, they've struggled as well, so while this one may not end up being close, it could likely come in as another low-scoring encounter for both teams. The Bearkats just don't have the offensive firepower to score many points, while Arch Manning has struggled to live up to huge expectations in Austin.
In 2025 for Sam Houston, the under is 2-1, with the team averaging just 21 points a game during those three games, and for the Longhorns, the under comes in at 3-0 this season, with the team allowing just 31 points in that time, and with the offense going over 30 just once, this should be another grinding matchup.
Keep it simple, take the under.
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