Sam Houston vs Texas Tech Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Sam Houston Bearkats visit the No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET. Texas Tech enters at 3-0 after surviving No. 22 Houston 28-26 in its Big 12 opener, while Sam Houston comes off a dominant 59-0 victory over Nicholls. The Bearkats now take an enormous step up in competition against an undefeated ranked opponent. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Sam Houston Finally Broke Through in a Big Way

Sam Houston began the season with consecutive close losses, falling 24-21 at Troy and 23-17 against Tulsa. Those results left the Bearkats at 0-2 despite being competitive in both games. They responded emphatically by shutting out Nicholls 59-0, their largest victory since making the move to FBS football.

That result gives Sam Houston something positive to carry into Lubbock. The Bearkats demonstrated offensive explosiveness while also producing a shutout, but the quality of opposition changes dramatically this week. Texas Tech represents a major increase in size, speed and depth.

Sam Houston’s priority needs to be surviving the opening quarter. If the Bearkats give Texas Tech short fields or fall behind by multiple touchdowns immediately, the Red Raiders have enough offensive ability to make this one-sided. Sam Houston needs to make Texas Tech sustain drives and prevent the crowd from becoming a major early factor.

Texas Tech Is Unbeaten After Surviving Houston

Texas Tech is 3-0 after beating Abilene Christian 33-10, Oregon State 35-24 and No. 22 Houston 28-26. The Houston victory was easily the most significant because the Red Raiders were pushed for four quarters and had to stop a late two-point conversion attempt to preserve the win.

The Red Raiders have therefore demonstrated two important qualities. They have handled opponents they were expected to beat, and they have won a close game against nationally ranked competition. That combination makes Texas Tech difficult to oppose when it returns home against a Conference USA opponent.

The primary handicapping concern is the potential letdown. Texas Tech just survived an emotional conference game and has another Big 12 road game at Colorado next. Sam Houston sits between those matchups, so concentration is worth considering when determining how many points the Red Raiders should be asked to cover.

Sam Houston vs Texas Tech Picks and Prediction

Pick: Texas Tech -24.5 or Better

The talent and depth advantages are substantial, and Texas Tech has scored at least 28 points in all three games. Sam Houston’s 59-0 victory was impressive, but moving from Nicholls to the No. 13 team in the country is an enormous jump. Below 25 points, I am comfortable backing Texas Tech to create separation over four quarters.

Pick: Under 58.5 or Higher

The potential Texas Tech letdown actually makes the under attractive. The Red Raiders do not need to maintain maximum offensive aggression for four quarters if they establish a comfortable lead, while Sam Houston’s best route to competitiveness involves slowing the game. Something around 38-13 or 41-10 supports both plays while remaining below this target.

Final Picks: Texas Tech -24.5 or Better and Under 58.5 or Higher