San Diego St. vs UCLA Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The San Diego State Aztecs travel to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, to face the UCLA Bruins on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET on Big Ten Network. Both teams enter at 1-0, with San Diego State coming off a 53-20 victory over Portland State and UCLA returning home after an impressive 45-24 road victory over California. UCLA is currently favored by 10.5 points with the total set at 51.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

San Diego State Makes a Statement in Its Opener

San Diego State opened its first season as a Pac-12 member with an explosive 53-20 victory over Portland State. The Aztecs trailed 6-0 early before taking complete control, scoring 29 unanswered points during the second quarter and eventually finishing with 394 total yards.

The ground game was particularly encouraging. San Diego State rushed for 237 yards while holding Portland State to 95. Javion Kinnard led the Aztecs with 79 yards on only eight carries, while Lucky Sutton rushed for 58 yards and three touchdowns. Jayden Denegal completed 12 of 17 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.

San Diego State also received enormous contributions from its special teams. The Aztecs blocked two punts and Jaylon Hawkins returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Those plays helped turn a competitive game into a rout and demonstrated how dangerous San Diego State can be when it wins the field-position battle.

The challenge is determining how much of that production carries over against UCLA. The Aztecs won't have the same physical advantage they enjoyed against Portland State, but rushing for 237 yards and generating multiple explosive plays provides legitimate reason to believe San Diego State can make UCLA work for this victory.

UCLA Runs Away From Cal in the Fourth Quarter

UCLA couldn't have asked for a much better beginning to the Bob Chesney era. The Bruins went on the road and defeated California 45-24, breaking open a 24-24 game by scoring all 21 points in the fourth quarter.

The UCLA running game was excellent. Anthony Woods rushed for 118 yards on only eight carries and scored two touchdowns, while Wayne Knight scored a career-high three touchdowns. Nico Iamaleava completed 14 of 22 passes for 184 yards with one interception and also scored a rushing touchdown. Mikey Matthews provided the biggest receiving threat with four catches for a career-high 88 yards.

UCLA's defense also made the plays that changed the game. Ta'Shawn James intercepted two passes in the fourth quarter, and both takeaways quickly resulted in Knight touchdowns. Sammy Omosigho finished with 14 tackles, one sack and two tackles for loss.

There were still areas UCLA will want to clean up. Cal rushed for 168 yards, with its leading back producing 120 on 28 carries. That is worth watching after San Diego State rushed for 237 yards in its opener. The Bruins have the stronger roster, but the Aztecs' ground game gives the underdog a legitimate avenue to shorten possessions and remain competitive.

San Diego St. vs UCLA Picks and Prediction

Pick: San Diego State +10.5

San Diego State +10.5 is my preferred side. UCLA's 45-24 win at Cal was impressive, but the final score disguises the fact that the game was tied entering the fourth quarter before two interceptions helped the Bruins pull away. San Diego State just rushed for 237 yards, and UCLA allowed Cal to have success on the ground. If the Aztecs can run effectively, they can shorten the game and prevent UCLA from consistently creating the additional possessions needed to cover double digits. Getting through the key number of 10 makes the underdog attractive. Take San Diego State +10.5.

Pick: Over 51.5

The Over 51.5 is my preferred total. UCLA showed legitimate offensive explosiveness in Berkeley, particularly on the ground, while San Diego State just scored 53 points and averaged better than five yards per rushing attempt. Some of SDSU's opening-week scoring came from special teams and short fields, so another 50-point performance shouldn't be expected. However, the Aztecs appear capable of contributing somewhere around 20-24 points. If UCLA reaches the low 30s, that should be enough to push this game past the number. Take Over 51.5.

Final Picks: San Diego State +10.5 and Over 51.5