San Diego State vs. Hawaii, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 8, 2025
In a Mountain West Conference matchup, San Diego State visits the Islands to take on Hawaii on Saturday night. San Diego State (7-1, 4-0 MWC) has won six in a row and is atop the conference standings, and Hawaii had their three-game win streak snapped in its last game. You have come to the right place for the matchup and full score info, so check out this detailed San Diego State vs. Hawaii prediction.
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San Diego State is a 7-point road favorite in this game with the total sitting at 49.5.
Still a Chance for San Diego State
San Diego State still has a chance to get the one Group of 5 bid for the College Football Playoffs, but they need to win the MWC and get some help. In their last game, they put on an impressive defensive performance in a 24-7 home win over Wyoming. They gained 390 yards. including 196 rushing yards and held Wyoming to only 185 yards, and while they had two turnovers, they forced four. Jayden Denegal passed for 194 yards with a TD and two picks, Lucky Sutton rushed for 158 yards and a score, and Donovan Brown and Byron Cardwell Jr. combined for 100 receiving yards. The Aztecs covered as a 10-point favorite and have covered the spread in every game of their six-game win streak.
SDSU has the nation’s second-best scoring defense (10 ppg) and ranks 65th in scoring (29.1 ppg). They are a run-first team that ranks 37th in rushing yards per game and only 112th in passing yards per game.
Denegal (1,415 yards, 8 TD 5 INT) has one TD and three INT in the last two games after two straight games with two TD and no picks. Sutton (820 yards 8 TD) ranks 14th in the nation in rushing yards and has totaled 289 yards in the last two games. Jordan Napier 610 yards 2 TD) is the only player with over 260 receiving yards. SDSU will face a Hawaii defense that ranks 75th in the nation in defending the pass and 54th in defending the run.
The Aztecs have a few players listed as questionable, including second-leading tackler Chris Johnson, and fourth-leading tackler Tano Letuli is out.
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Hawaii Gashed on Defense
In their last game, Hawaii was on the road in a 45-38 barnburner loss to San Jose State, where their defense was gassed, giving up 630 yards, including 458 passing yards. They had the only turnover in the game, and they gained 496 yards, with 401 passing yards and only 95 rushing yards. Micah Alejado passed for 367 yards with three TD and no INT, Landon Sims rushed for 57 yards and a TD, and Jackson Harris and Pofele Ashlock combined for 238 receiving yards and two scores. The Rainbow Warriors failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog, and they covered the spread in their previous four games.
Hawaii ranks 60th in the nation in scoring (29.7 ppg) and is tied for 80th in giving up an average of 25.7 ppg. They are the opposite of San Diego State, as they are a pass-first team, big time, ranking seventh in passing yards per game and only 126th in rushing yards per game.
Alejado (2,124 yards, 15 T,D 6 TD) has three TD in each of the last four games. Harris and Ashlock have combined for 1,199 receiving yards and 13 TD and Harris is averaging 17.2 yards per catch. Sims (439 yards 3 TD) is the lead rusher and had rusher and has at least 57 rushing yards in each of the last four games.
Hawaii has several players out with injury but no key ones.
San Diego State vs. Hawaii Pick
Spread Pick San Diego State vs. Hawaii
- San Diego State -7 (+4 Units)
San Diego State is riding a six-game winning streak, while Hawaii had their three-game win streak snapped in their last game. The Aztecs still have a chance for the College Football Playoffs, and the Rainbow Warriors are bowl eligible and can improve the bowl they play in with more wins. SDSU has the second-best scoring defense in the nation, has only given up a total of 17 points in the last three games, and has three shutout wins. While the Rainbow Warriors have a great passing attack, it has helped that in the last four games, they have faced pass defenses that do not rank in the top 126 in the nation three times. Regarding the San Diego State vs. Hawaii prediction, the Aztecs will get it done on the ground and continue their defensive dominance, which means they will get the win and cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Hawaii
- Under 49.5 (+4 Units)
The total has gone Under for San Diego State’s last two games, and that is the total I am leaning towards in this game. Hawaii has been scoring big in the last few games but they have faced teams with bad pass defenses. I mean, in the last game, they faced a San Jose State team that ranks dead last in the nation in defending the pass. The Aztecs have a great defense and a good pass rush, and they will stymie the Hawaii offense. SDSU will get their points, but not a ton, and they have not scored more than 24 points in their last two games. This MWC battle will be a lower-scoring affair, so the Under is the pick.
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