SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 13, 2025
The SMU Mustangs (1-1, 1-1 O/U) are facing off against the Missouri State Bears (1-1, 1-1 O/U) are battling it out in Week 3 of the 2025 college football season on Saturday afternoon inside Robert W. Plaster Stadium in non-conference action for our Mustangs vs. Bears prediction. The Mustangs are coming off a 48-45 double-overtime home loss on Saturday against the Baylor Bears. The Bears are coming off their 21-20 road win over the Marshall Thundering Herd on Saturday. This is the first time that these teams are facing off against one another. Rivalries, tempo, trenches — NCAAF picks for SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears.
Mustangs Revving Their Engines
The SMU Mustangs are looking like they have been able to do well to begin the season, as they are 1-1 after their 48-45 double-overtime home loss against the Baylor Bears last week at home. In that game, they blew a 14-point lead inside the final six minutes. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has played well under center this season as he completed 38-of-52 (73.1%) of his passes for 555 yards with five passing touchdowns and a pair of interceptions while also rushing 20 times for 30 yards (1.5 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown. Wide receiver Romello Brinson stepped up as he leads the Mustangs with 11 catches for 247 yards (22.5 yards per reception) and three receiving touchdowns, while T.J. Harden adds 157 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
SMU’s defense has struggled as they are allowing 30.5 points per game thus far. They couldn’t manage to get off the field as Baylor finished 8-for-18 on third down and 3-for-6 on fourth down tries in the game.
Injury Report for SMU
- Wide receiver Jordan Hudson: Upper Body (Questionable)
- Linebacker Alexander Kilgore: Leg (Questionable)
- Wide receiver Isaiah Robertson: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke: Knee (OUT)
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Bears on the Attack
The Missouri State Bears are looking to build off their 21-20 road win against the Marshall Thundering Herd. That was the first win for the program since moving to the FBS level from FCS. The offense is averaging 22.0 points per game, so they are in a position to step up. Quarterback Jacob Clark has completed 37-of-55 (67.3%) of his passes for 506 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions thus far this season. A big player for the offense is running back Ramone Green Jr as he has six rushing attempts for 29 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and six catches for 151 yards (25.2 yards per reception) with a touchdown grab. He shares rushing duties with Shomari Lawrence,who has 125 rushing and receiving yards.
The defense has been struggling as they are allowing 46.5 points per game right now. Marshall was able to run the ball effectively against them as they averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the day.
Injury Report for Missouri State
- Running back Sage White: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Wide receiver James BlackStrain: Thumb (Questionable)
- Tight end Gary Clinton: Leg (OUT)
SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears Pick
Spread Pick for SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears
- SMU Mustangs -27.5 (5 units)
There is a clear difference between what these teams can do on the field and SMU should completely dominate. Missouri State's only being able to run for 2.3 yards per carry is a bit of a struggle and really limits what the Bears can do offensively. SMU is moving the football well and should be able to continue to put points on the board. With five takeaways through two games, the Mustangs are going to be in a position to dominate so take them to cover the large number on the road.
Over/Under Pick for SMU Mustangs vs. Missouri State Bears
- Under 61.5 (4 units)
Neither offense has really encapsulated itself to be a significant offensive threat. Before the overtime periods, SMU’s offense had seven fewer points while Missouri State has scored a total of 34 points this season. This is asking more than a point per minute, which is a lot to ask two teams that do not run the football at a great rate up to this point. All in all, go with under 61.5 total points to be scored here.
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