SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Prediction and Picks – September 20, 2025
The TCU Horned Frogs will host the SMU Mustangs this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our SMU vs. TCU prediction. TCU is 2-0 this season after a nationally-televised win over UNC and a less-celebrated 42-21 win over Abilene Christian; SMU is 2-1 and still searching for their first win against a Power 4 opponent. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 20.
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Can Mustangs Start Faster in Week 4?
The SMU Mustangs are 2-1 heading into Week 4 of the college football season, with wins over Texas A&M Commerce (42-13) and Missouri State (28-10). They're still looking for their first win over a Power 4 opponent after losing to Baylor (45-48) in Week 2, and they're 0-3 against the spread after entering each of their first three games as favorites. Will they put on a stronger performance against TCU as a seven-point underdog?
SMU started slow in their win over Missouri State last week, allowing the Bears to take a 10-0 lead in the first quarter before scoring 28 unanswered points through the latter three quarters to finish the game. The Mustangs gained 448 total yards to the Bears' 328 and didn't allow a conversion on any of the Bears' 12 third-down attempts, but they also lost 130 yards on 12 committed penalties. It wasn't a great look for the Mustangs against a team that only recently ascended to the FBS level; TCU won't give them nearly as much of a margin for error to work with.
The Mustangs are in their fourth season under head coach Rhett Lashlee, who served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Miami (FL) from 2020-21 before taking the job in University Park. Since then, the Mustangs have posted a 31-13 overall record, finished with an 11-3 record in 2023-34, and qualified for the College Football Playoff. At quarterback, the team is led by junior Kevin Jennings, who's spent his entire college career at SMU and threw for 3,245 yards and 23 touchdowns as the team's starter in 2024. He leads an offense that ranks 31st among FBS teams in passing yards per game (278.7), but he's also thrown an interception and taken two sacks in each of the Mustangs' first three games.
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TCU has not played an FBS team since beating UNC
The TCU Horned Frogs opened the 2025 season on the national stage, dismantling the UNC Tar Heels 48-14 on a Monday night in a game they were only favored to win by 3.5 points. Since then, TCU has played one game—they took Week 2 off, then spent Week 3 beating FCS Abilene Christian 42-21. Not a bad result, but an underwhelming follow-up to their high-profile win.
In their meeting, TCU only outgained Abilene Christian 489 yards to 453; they gave up a turnover without forcing one in return, and they allowed the Wildcats to convert on 12 of 17 third-down attempts. TCU dominated the first half and entered the tunnel with a 28-0 lead, but the players that TCU left on the field in the fourth quarter allowed a pair of touchdowns in the span of 32 in-game seconds.
The Horned Frogs are in their fourth season under head coach Sonny Dykes, who took the team to the College Football Playoff National Championship in his first season at the helm. Pat Hoover, the starting junior quarterback who's been with the team in Fort Worth for as long as Dykes, completed 21 of 27 passes for four touchdowns without throwing a pick or taking a sack. He leads an offense that currently ranks 18th in passing yards (322.5), 44th in rushing yards (193.0), and ties for 22nd in points (45.0) per game. On the injury front, the Horned Frogs could play without leading rusher Kevorian Barnes, who suffered an injury against Abilene Christian.
SMU vs TCU Pick
Spread Pick for SMU vs TCU
- SMU 7.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Mustangs still need to decisively beat someone this season, and the Horned Frogs are coming off a game in which they toyed around with a lesser opponent (Abilene Christian). SMU won last year's meeting with TCU by a score of 66-42, doing far more than required to cover the 58.5 total. TCU can still win outright here, but SMU should have the horses to at least keep things close against a team that hasn't faced an FBS team since August.
Over/Under Pick for SMU vs TCU
- Over 64.5 (-115) (4 Units)
The Team Total Over is 2-0 in TCU games this season and 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these teams. Last year's meeting ended in a 66-42 SMU win, covering the 58.5 total line by nearly 50 points. SMU dragged their feet in last week's win over Missouri State, but they've topped 40 points as an offensive unit in each of their first two games. I wouldn't want to bet the under here.
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