SMU Mustangs vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Prediction and Picks - October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC ACC College Football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have an SMU vs Wake Forest Prediction locked and loaded for you. SMU is off to a 5-2 start, which includes a 35-24 road win over Clemson last week. Wake Forest comes in off a 39-14 road win over Oregon State to move to 4-2 on the season. Which team will continue their winning ways? Continue reading to see our SMU vs Wake Forest prediction.
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Mustangs Take Down Clemson On The Road
SMU enters this matchup with momentum after a strong start to their first season in the ACC, highlighted by a road win at Clemson that showcased both their offensive firepower and their ability to handle pressure in a hostile environment. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been the centerpiece of the Mustangs’ attack, already surpassing 1,900 passing yards with 17 touchdowns. His poise in the pocket and ability to extend plays when protection breaks down has allowed SMU to consistently generate explosive gains downfield. The Mustangs are averaging over 34 points per game, and while their rushing attack has been modest, the balance provided by Tomarion Harden and Chris Johnson Jr. has been enough to keep defenses from keying exclusively on the passing game.
The offensive line has been a stabilizing factor, particularly in pass protection, where they’ve given Jennings the time to work through progressions and find his playmakers. However, discipline remains a concern, as SMU ranks near the bottom nationally in penalty yards per game. Those mistakes have stalled drives and put the defense in difficult positions, something they cannot afford against a Wake Forest team that thrives on capitalizing on opponents’ miscues. If the Mustangs can clean up those self-inflicted wounds, their offense has the potential to dictate tempo and force Wake into a higher-scoring contest than they may prefer.
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Defensively, SMU has been stout against the run, holding opponents under 100 rushing yards per game, but their secondary has been a liability, surrendering over 300 passing yards on average. That vulnerability will be tested against Wake Forest’s vertical passing game, which has shown signs of life in recent weeks. Still, the Mustangs have been opportunistic, forcing turnovers at a steady clip and generating pressure up front that disrupts timing. Their ability to win at the line of scrimmage and create negative plays has often offset their struggles in coverage, and that formula will be critical if they want to leave Winston-Salem with another statement win.
Wake Crushed Oregon State On The Road
Wake Forest comes into this matchup at 4–2, fresh off a convincing 39–14 victory over Oregon State that highlighted the balance and versatility of their offense. Running back Demond Claiborne has been the steady force in the backfield, averaging close to 90 yards per game while adding eight touchdowns, and his ability to break off chunk plays has been a consistent spark. The passing game has been equally encouraging, with Deshawn Purdie stepping in for the injured Robby Ashford and delivering a four-touchdown performance last week. That kind of efficiency gives Wake flexibility at quarterback, and with Chris Barnes emerging as a reliable downfield target, the Demon Deacons have multiple ways to stress opposing defenses.
The offensive line has been a key factor in Wake’s recent success, providing both protection for the quarterback and lanes for Claiborne to exploit. Their ability to control the trenches against Oregon State allowed the Deacons to dictate tempo and wear down the defense over four quarters. Against SMU, that same physicality will be tested by a front seven that has excelled at stopping the run. If Wake can establish balance early and keep the Mustangs from pinning their ears back in obvious passing situations, they’ll be in position to sustain drives and keep their defense fresh.
Defensively, Wake Forest has been one of the more reliable units in the ACC, allowing just 20 points per game and ranking inside the top 35 nationally in total defense. Their secondary has been particularly impressive, holding opponents under 190 passing yards per contest, which matches up well against SMU’s pass-heavy approach. The challenge will be containing Jennings’ improvisation and limiting explosive plays, as the Mustangs thrive on momentum-shifting drives. If Wake can force SMU into long possessions, capitalize on penalties, and continue to execute in the red zone, they’ll have a strong chance to defend their home field and build on their early-season success.
SMU vs Wake Forest Pick
SMU vs Wake Forest Spread Pick
- SMU -3 (5 Units)
SMU -3 looks like a strong play given the way their offense has been operating and the matchup advantages they bring into Winston-Salem. Kevin Jennings has been highly efficient at quarterback, spreading the ball to multiple receivers and keeping defenses off balance with his ability to extend plays. The Mustangs are averaging over 34 points per game, and while Wake Forest’s secondary has been solid, SMU’s tempo and vertical passing attack present a different kind of challenge. If Jennings gets time in the pocket, the Mustangs have the firepower to put Wake on its heels early and force them into a higher-scoring game than they’d prefer.
On the other side of the ball, SMU’s defensive front has been excellent against the run, holding opponents under 100 rushing yards per game. That strength matches up well against a Wake Forest offense that leans heavily on Demond Claiborne to establish rhythm. If the Mustangs can bottle up the ground game and make Wake one-dimensional, their pass rush has the potential to disrupt whichever quarterback is under center. Combined with their ability to generate turnovers and capitalize on short fields, SMU has the tools to cover the small number and continue their strong start in ACC play.
SMU vs Wake Forest Over/Under Pick
- Over 54.5 (4 Units)
The Over 54.5 feels like a strong angle here given the way both offenses are trending. SMU has been explosive through the air with Kevin Jennings spreading the ball to multiple playmakers, and they’ve averaged over 34 points per game while showing the ability to score quickly. Wake Forest, meanwhile, just put up 39 points on Oregon State and has found balance with Demond Claiborne’s rushing attack complementing a resurgent passing game. With SMU’s secondary vulnerable to big plays and Wake’s defense likely tested by tempo and vertical shots, this matchup sets up for sustained scoring on both sides, making the Over 54.5 an appealing play.
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