South Alabama Jaguars vs. North Texas Mean Green Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC Get ready for an entertaining Week 5 clash as the South Alabama Jaguars battle it out with the North Texas Mean Green in our Jaguars vs. Mean Green prediction. Set to unfold at DATCU Stadium on September 27th at 12:00 PM ET, this game, airing on ESPNU, promises an exciting matchup with two teams currently in different spots as South Alabama is 1-3 while North Texas is a perfect 4-0. With these teams looking to step up in this matchup, let's dive into the stats, injuries, and key insights to preview what's in store.
Find the edge fast with NCAAF picks for South Alabama Jaguars vs. North Texas Mean Green.
Jaguars Looking to Improve
The South Alabama Jaguars are looking to snap their three-game losing streak as they are coming off a 38-20 home loss against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on Saturday in Sun Belt action. They are currently 81st in college football with 29.0 points per game scored. South Alabama’s offense is led by quarterback Bishop Davenport, who has been able to complete 69-of-100 passes for 764 yards with six passing touchdowns to three interceptions as well as 31 rushes for 56 yards (1.8 yards per attempt) with a rushing touchdown to open the season. Their total offense is recording 379.5 yards per game (81st in NCAA), with rushing leading the way with 186.5 yards (53rd). The passing game needs to do better compared to the rest of the country with an average of 193.0 yards per game (97th).
Defensively, the Jaguars are giving up 30.8 points per game, which is 114th in football. The team is not giving up too many yards as they are allowing 344.2 total yards per game (58th). The run defense has been the issue as they are giving up 199.8 yards on the ground (124th). If the run defense can improve, they can be a good defensive team.
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Injury Report for South Alabama
- Wide receiver Nick Simmons: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Kicker Davis Little: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Tight end Nate Forystek: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Kohl Bradley: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive guard Daniel Foster Allen: Undisclosed (Questionable)
Mean Green Looking to Remain Undefeated
The North Texas Mean Green are looking to continue establishing dominance this season as they are coming off a 45-38 road victory over the Army Black Knights. The offense has been on fire as they are scoring 47.0 points per game this year, putting them 10th in the country. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been outstanding under center as he has completed 92-of-130 passes for 1,013 yards with 10 touchdown passes without any interceptions while also running 16 times for 69 yards (4.3 yards per carry) and a rushing touchdown. As a team, they are ranked 42nd nationally in total yards, averaging 439.0 per game. North Texas’ passing offense, which averages 262.2 yards per game, has been their strength as they are 42nd in college football. The rushing game, contributing 176.8 yards per game (61st nationally), has been no slouch and allows the team to have a balanced offensive attack.
The Mean Green’s defense is tied for 47th with 19.5 points allowed per game. They are also allowing an average of 296.2 total yards per game (37th), which makes things more difficult for the opposition to get much going against them. Their pass defense, in particular, has been dominant, conceding only 121.8 yards per game (11th). Their rush defense, allowing 174.5 yards per game, remains a place where they need to significantly improve to be a complete team competing for a College Football Playoff spot.
Injury Report for North Texas
- Running back Kiefer Sibley: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman Brayden Knox: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive guard Keon Johnson: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Tight end Connor Vaughn: Undisclosed (Questionable)
South Alabama Jaguars vs. North Texas Mean Green Pick
Spread Pick for South Alabama vs. North Texas
- North Texas Mean Green -12.5 ( units)
The South Alabama Jaguars have not been able to do too well this season, while the North Texas Mean Green are clicking on all cylinders. South Alabama has not been able to apply much pressure as they have six sacks in their first four games of the year. This will allow North Texas to keep the pocket clean and allow plays down the field to develop, as well as create running lanes for the running backs. Go with the North Texas Mean Green to improve to 5-0 this season and 4-1 against the spread up to this point.
Over/Under Pick for South Alabama vs. North Texas
- Over 63.5 (5 units)
This may seem like a massive number at first, but looking at how these teams are passing the football, with the combination of Davenport and Mestemaker having 16 passing touchdowns to three interceptions. Both offenses are moving the ball in big chunks as the Jaguars are averaging 5.6 yards per play while the Mean Green are posting 6.3 yards per play. These teams also keep drives alive as South Alabama is 21-of-54 (38.89%) on third downs, while North Texas is 24-of-45 (53.33%) in their chances. All in all, go with over 63.5 total points to be scored.
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