South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Troy Trojans will host the South Alabama Jaguars at Veterans Memorial Stadium Saturday in a Sun Belt Conference game, with the kickoff slated for 7:00 PM Eastern as Troy looks to win back-to-back. Read on for the Jaguars vs the Trojans prediction and more free NCAAF picks.
Jaguars Defense Struggles
South Alabama continued its fast pace of play, but was unable to top North Texas. They fell 36-22 in a non-conference battle. The Jaguars went on to allow more than 30 for the third straight game. Bishop Davenport led the way through the air, and he holds a 9/4 TD/INT ratio on the season. He also ran for his second rushing touchdown of the season. South Alabama held North Texas to 4-13 on 3rd downs, but still allowed over 420 total yards. Devin Voisin continues to be the preferred target, and he had just his second game of the season with fewer than six catches.
South Alabama enters this contest averaging 22.0 points per game, which ranks 88th in the country. They’re generating just under 390 yards per game, which sits inside the top 75. Their third-down conversion rate has been 40%, placing them near the mid-pack. The ability to move the chains and keep drives alive has made this high-octane offense tough to slow down. Meanwhile, their red zone offense has been inefficient, converting 78.57% of their trips inside the 20 into scores, which is near the bottom 100. Davenport hasn't been too clean with the ball, and the offensive line has done just an average job protecting him. If the ground game can get going, averaging 189 yards per game, that should buy Davenport more time in the pocket.
South Alabama Key Team Stats:
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- Total Yards Per Game: 386.8
- 3rd-Down Conversion Rate: 40%
- Red Zone Scoring %: 78.87%
On defense, the Jaguars have been vulnerable, allowing 34.5 points per game, ranking them at 116th in the nation. Opponents are generating about 370 yards per contest, a middling mark. They’ve struggled to stop opposing third downs, allowing 44.44% conversions, while in the red zone, they have yet to keep an opponent out of the endzone. The inability to get off the field has only put this offense in a deeper hole. The defense has shown signs of fatigue as they are giving up over five yards per carry. On the plus side, the secondary sits top 20 in opposing QB completion percentage.
Troy Seeks First Conference Win
Troy rallied late, scoring 21 points in the 4th quarter, to top Buffalo in a 21-17 final. Tucker Kilcrease continues to lead the quarterback room, and he threw for his first touchdown of the season. His completion percentage remains a concern. Troy went 10-21 on 3rd downs and held the Buffaloes to under 300 yards of offense.
Troy enters the season under second-year head coach Gerad Parker. Offensively, the Trojans are putting up 14.7 points per game, ranking 120th in football. They generate about 260 total yards per outing, putting them near the bottom of the country. The passing game has been slow to get going, with Kilcrease completing just over 51% of his throws. His average completion depth of 5.1 yards is also near the lowest in America. The ground attack hasn't been much better as the Trojans are garnering fewer than three yards per carry.
Troy Key Team Stats:
- Total Yards Per Game: 259.3
- 3rd-Down Conversion Rate: 38.78%
- Red Zone Scoring: 66.67%
On defense, the Trojans have been solid, allowing 24 points per game, a mark that ranks among the top defenses in the Sun Belt and is right outside the top 50 in the country. Opponents are gaining roughly 341.8 yards per contest, and they have converted on third downs at a 38.65% rate against Troy. The run defense has held foes to 4.2 yards per carry. Through the air, opposing quarterbacks are completing just under 62% of their throws against Troy, and the pass rush has racked up 7 sacks in 4 games. Finishing drives strongly will be key here as the Troy defense hasn't gotten a stop inside the red zone yet this season.
South Alabama vs. Troy Pick
Spread Prediction for South Alabama vs Troy
- South Alabama +2.5 (4 Units)
While it will be Troy's conference home opener, the Trojan offense has simply been too inept to confidently back. South Alabama has shown they can move the ball up and down the field. With the porous red zone defense from Troy, look for South Alabama to finish drives and keep it close on the road.
South Alabama +2.5
Total Prediction for South Alabama vs Troy
- Over 47.5 (4 Units)
As mentioned, South Alabama likes to play up-tempo and get in as many plays as possible. They should be able to do so here against a Troy defense that has been inconsistent. Likewise, the Jaguars' defense has allowed over 30 in three straight games, and this is an ideal matchup for the Troy offense to get things figured out. Expect both offenses to look good here.
Over 47.5
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