South Dakota vs Boise State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 19 2026

The South Dakota Coyotes travel to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, to face the Boise State Broncos on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET. South Dakota enters with considerable momentum after beating Eastern Washington 41-23, while Boise State is coming off an impressive 38-20 victory over Memphis. The Broncos controlled the second half of that matchup and strengthened their position among the leading Group of Six programs. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

South Dakota Is a Dangerous FCS Opponent

South Dakota should not be viewed as a routine FCS tune-up. The Coyotes just defeated Eastern Washington 41-23 and demonstrated enough offensive balance to consistently create scoring opportunities against a respected Big Sky opponent.

The Coyotes were particularly effective creating explosive plays. South Dakota repeatedly found ways to get behind Eastern Washington's defense and eventually created substantial second-half separation. That offensive ability matters when evaluating a potentially large spread because South Dakota has a much better chance of contributing points than the average FCS visitor.

The challenge is obvious. Boise State represents a significant jump in size and depth, and Albertsons Stadium is one of the more difficult environments South Dakota will encounter. The Coyotes need to avoid turnovers and remain patient. Falling behind by multiple touchdowns early would allow Boise State to lean on its physical advantages and make the game increasingly difficult.

Boise State Made a Statement Against Memphis

Boise State's 38-20 victory over Memphis was an important result for a program with postseason ambitions. Memphis actually led 20-17 at halftime, but Boise State completely controlled the second half and scored the final 21 points.

The Broncos' rushing attack was devastating. Boise State produced a 206-yard individual rushing performance and increasingly wore Memphis down as the game progressed. That becomes particularly important against an FCS opponent because Boise State should own an even larger advantage in depth and physicality.

South Dakota is dangerous enough that Boise State can't simply sleepwalk through the opening half. However, the Broncos should become increasingly dominant as the game progresses. The main betting question is how large the eventual spread becomes because South Dakota has enough offensive ability to make laying an enormous number uncomfortable.

South Dakota vs Boise State Picks and Prediction

Pick: South Dakota +28.5 or Better

Take South Dakota if the Coyotes are getting +28.5 or better. Boise State should win comfortably, but South Dakota just scored 41 against Eastern Washington and has enough offensive ability to contribute. Four touchdowns provides significant protection against an FCS team that should remain aggressive even after falling behind.

Pick: Over 55.5

Take the Over if the total is set at 55.5 or lower. Boise State scored 38 against Memphis and should encounter substantially less defensive resistance here. South Dakota's offense also gives the Coyotes a realistic chance to reach the high teens or low 20s. A projected Boise State 42, South Dakota 20 gives the Coyotes the cover while sending the matchup Over.

Final Picks: South Dakota +28.5 or Better and Over 55.5