South Florida vs. Florida Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
One of the underrated non-conference matchups from week two of the college football slate features an in-state rivalry clash between the South Florida Bulls (1-0) and the #13 Florida Gators (1-0). We’ve got you covered with our South Florida vs. Florida prediction. Kickoff is set for 4:35 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL.
Bulls Dominate Broncos in Opener
Coach Alex Golesh is back for his third season as the lead man of the South Florida Bulls football program, and he has guided the team to a 15-12 (8-8 CONF) mark so far. They’re 2-0 in bowl games. This record also includes last weekend’s dominant victory over Boise State, where South Florida notched an impressive 34-7 win over the 2024-25 CFP attendee. The Bulls were 5.5-point home underdogs, so they obviously covered in the outright win. Statistically, South Florida went 5-14 on third-down conversions and logged 372 total yards. They also won the turnover battle 0-3.
Junior QB Byrum Brown looked sharp in the week one win, throwing for 210 yards and adding 43 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. RB Alvon Isaac went for 52 yards on the ground in the win. Out wide, Brown will be distributing the ball to WRs Chas Nimrod (96 yards) and Keshaun Singleton (93 yards, 1 TD).
- After week one, South Florida now sits at +550 to win the conference title.
- Touching on last year’s metrics, the Bulls were 34th in points per game (30.8) and 41st in yards per week (409.1).
- They were 105th in defensive scoring (32.0 PAPG) and 123rd in yards conceded per game (459.4).
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#13 Gators Smash Sharks 55-0
Coach Billy Napier is back for his fourth campaign with the Florida Gators, and he was on the hot seat at one point last season, but ultimately led the program to an 8-5 (4-4 SEC) mark. The Gators will once again feature one of the toughest schedules in college football. However, they handled one of their weaker opponents in week one, decimating Long Island University 55-0. The Gators out-gained the Sharks 451-86 and held the visitors to only 1-12 on third down. Florida won the turnover battle (0-2) as well.
QB DJ Lagway looked sharp in his season debut, tossing three touchdowns and logging 120 yards in the tune-up win. He’ll be looking to distribute the ball to WRs J. Michael Sturdivant (7 yards) and Eugene Wilson (-4 yards). Their early-season stats are lousy due to a lack of playing time in week one. As for the rushing attack, Jaden Baugh (104 yards, 1 TD) will lead the way.
- Florida has an adjusted win total of 7.5 (+140/-170) and they’re priced at +1500 to win the conference title.
- The Gators finished last season ranked 64th in scoring (26.9 PPG), while coming in at 82nd in yards per game (366.5).
- Defensively, they were 50th in points given up per game (24.4) and 75th in yards conceded per contest (391.4).
USF vs. Florida pick
Spread Pick for USF vs. Florida
- Florida Gators -17.5 (-114) (5 units)
Florida is going to be legit this season. They have a seasoned quarterback in DJ Lagway, and he’ll be playing behind an offensive line that was ranked fourth in the PFF preseason rankings this year. On the flip side, the Gators also boast the fourth-best defensive line. Having two top-five units in the trenches against a group-of-five competitor should see Florida cruise in this intrastate showdown.
We may see some people overreact and buy in on South Florida, but I think their 34-7 rout of Boise State was more of a tell of the Aston Jeanty-less Broncos. Don’t get me wrong, it was a nice win, but this will be a big step up in competition in a hostile road environment. Florida’s on a 5-0 ATS run, and that’s a trend that I think we see continue on Saturday.
Over/Under Pick for USF vs. Florida pick
- Over 55.5 (-110) (5 units)
I’m going to take a flier on the over in Gainesville on Saturday. USF looked good defensively in week one, but once again, I’m not putting much stock in that victory over a declining Boise State program. Last year, the Bulls ranked 105th in defensive scoring, allowing 32.0 points per game. With Lagway and a veteran group of skilled position players around him, I like the Gators to turn in another big-time offensive performance.
On the flip side, Florida was shaky last season, conceding 24.4 points per game (50th). Byrum Brown is a dual-threat quarterback for USF, and I expect them to find enough offensive success to help get this game over the total. The over is 4-1 in South Florida’s last five games. I think this one lands in the 38-20 or 38-17 range in favor of the Gators.
