South Florida vs. North Texas Picks and Prediction, Friday, October 10, 2025
Use Code SSWC AAC action heats up in the Lone Star State on Friday night with North Texas (5-0, 1-0 American) playing host to 24th-ranked South Florida (4-1, 1-0 American). South Florida has already beaten two ranked teams, with their only loss to third-ranked Miami, and this will be North Texas’s first game facing a top 25 team. In this South Florida vs. North Texas prediction, you can check out the full score info and other free NCAAF picks.
South Florida comes into this game as a slight road favorite posted at -1, with the total sitting at 68.
Offense Blows Up for South Florida
After only scoring 12 points in South Florida’s lone loss, they have scored 63 points and 54 points, respectively, in their last two games. In their last game, they were at home and laid a 54-26 beatdown down, facing Charlotte, outscoring them 33-7 in the first half. For the gam,e the Bulls outgained the 49ers 631 yards to 279 yards and rushed for 407 yards. Byrum Brown passed for 211 yards with four TD and two INT and led four players with at least 69 rushing yards with 162 yards and a score. The Bulls covered as a 27.5-point favorite and are 4-1 ATS on the season.
- USF ranks tied for 20th in the nation in scoring (40.6 ppg) and has a balanced offense ranking 48th in passing yards per game and 41st in rushing yards per game.
- Brown (1.194 yards 10 TD 4 INT) is also the leading rusher. (282 yards 3 TD) and he has passed for four TDs in each of the last two games.
- Sam Franklin (186 yards 2 TD) is averaging 7.2 yards per carry and has rushed for 166 yards in the last two games.
- The Bulls only have two players with over 95 receiving yards, led by Chris Nimrod (421 yards 3 TD), who is averaging 22.2 yards per carry.
- On the season, South Florida is 1-1 on the road.
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Big Test for North Texas
This may be the first big test for North Texas and while they throttled Washington State this season, that is the only FBS team they have faced that currently has a winning record. In their last game, they were at home in a 36-22 win over South Alabama, where they narrowly outgained them (429 yards to 396 yards) and gave up 204 rushing yards. Drew Mestemaker passed for 234 yards and a TD with no picks, and Caleb Hawkins rushed for 140 yards and two TDs, and also led the way with 78 receiving yards and a score. The Mean Green covered as a 13-point favorite and has covered the spread in each of the last three games.
- North Texas ranks ninth in the nation in scoring (44.8 ppg) and like the Bulls, they are balanced, ranking 49th in passing yards per game and 46th in rushing yards per game.
- Mestemaker (1,247 yards 11 TD 0 INT) has passed for one TD in each of the last two games after nine TD in the first three games.
- Hawkins and Makenzie McGill II have combined for 625 rushing yards and 11 TDs.
- The Mean Green have three players with over 200 receiving yards, led by Miles Coleman (219yards).
- On the season, North Texas is 3-0 at home.
South Florida vs. North Texas Pick
Spread Pick for South Florida vs. North Texas
- Kent State +45.5(+4 Units)
Both of these teams have been solid on the offensive side of the ball so far this season. USF only ranks 61st in the nation defending the pass and 91st defending the run, but has played three top 25 teams. While North Texas has played great pass defense, it only ranks 124th out of 136 FBS teams in run defense, and that is key. The Bulls rushed for over 400 yards in their last game, while the Mean Green allowed more than 200 rushing yards. Regarding the South Florida vs. North Texas prediction, the Bulls will have the better ground game and that is the main reason they will win and cover, handing the Mean Green their first loss of the season.
Over/Under Pick for South Florida vs. North Texas
- Over 68
The total has gone over for the last three games for South Florida, and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. Both of these teams are balanced on the offensive side of the ball and each ranks in the top 21 in the nation in scoring. The Mean Green have had issues defending the run this season, only ranking 124th in the nation in run D.. They gave up over 200 rushing yards in their last game and will struggle in this game. The Bulls rushed for over 400 yards in their last game and scored 54 points. The USF defense has not been great, but they have faced three ranked teams. North Texas will put up a pretty high total in this game, and since the Bulls will do the same, it will be a high-scoring game, so the Over is the pick.
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