Stanford Cardinal vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC The SMU Mustangs will host the Stanford Cardinal this Saturday for an early ACC game, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Stanford vs. SMU prediction. SMU enters Week 7 after a 31-18 home win over the Syracuse Orange, while Stanford enjoyed a Week 7 bye after a close 30-29 win against the San José State Spartans. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 11.
Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Can Stanford improve from bye after close SJSU win?
The Stanford Cardinal football program has seen better days, but a 2-3 overall record and 1-1 record in conference play still ranks them ninth among 17 ACC teams heading into Week 7. Two of their losses have come against opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 25: No. 18 BYU (27-3) and No. 19 Virginia (48-20). Their remaining three games consist of a road loss against Hawai'i (23-20) and home wins against Boston College (30-20) and San José State (30-29).
The San José State win very nearly wasn't, however–the Cardinal rallied from behind with nine points in the fourth quarter to win 30-29, kicking a 36-yard field goal with 5:54 remaining and running in a one-yard touchdown with 19 seconds to go. Senior quarterback Ben Gulbranson had his highest-volume day of the season, completing 29 of 43 passes for 444 yards and two touchdowns, averaging a 67.4 completion percentage and 10.3 yards per attempt. He shattered his previous season-high marks for completions (20), attempts (29), and yards (286) against the Spartans, and he's now posted a 5-0 TD-INT ratio in his last three games after an 0-3 ratio in his first two. Gulbranson completed the comeback without much help from the run game – freshman back Cole Tabb led the team with 48 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while sophomore lead back Micah Ford finished the game with a season-low 12 yards on seven carries.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Heading into Week 7, the Cardinal rank T-65th in passing yards (233.4), 125th in rushing yards (96.2), T-114th in points (20.6), and T-104th in points allowed (29.4) per game. They're coming off a bye in Week 6 before their road trip to play SMU, on the other side of which are a pair of daunting games against Florida State and Miami.
SMU looking to go 2-0 in the ACC
The SMU Mustangs spent Week 6 of the college football season coasting to a 31-18 win over the Syracuse Orange, boosting them to a 3-2 overall record and starting them at 1-0 in conference play. They're ranked 5th in the ACC standings heading into Week 7, looking up at Duke and a trio of ranked teams (No. 2 Miami, No. 13 Georgia Tech, No. 19 Virginia) as the only teams with undefeated conference records.
The Mustangs' 31-18 win over the Orange wasn't close, but it could've been far more decisive if the SMU offense hadn't faded dramatically in the second half. Junior quarterback Kevin Jennings finished the game with an 82.9 completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt, completing 29 of 35 passes for 285 yards and four touchdowns. Three of those scores came in the second quarter, on three straight drives to put the Mustangs up 24-0 after a first-quarter field goal. It's well that the Mustangs built an early lead, because they went backward on three of their first five drives to open the second half. Syracuse scored touchdowns on two fourth-quarter drives to cut the lead to 31-18. Between these drives was a four-play sequence of senior lead back T.J. Harden being tackled for a two-yard loss, Jennings throwing a pick, the Mustangs' defense logging a pick of their own, and the Mustangs' offense immediately giving up a two-point safety on the next possession.
SMU enters Week 7 ranked T-23rd in passing yards (284.0), 104th in rushing yards (128.0), 26th in points (38.8), and 75th in points allowed (24.8) per game among FBS teams. They didn't look like that team for four quarters against the Orange; they'll need to be better to close out the game against the Cardinal.
Stanford vs. SMU pick
Spread Pick for Stanford vs. SMU
- Stanford +18.5 (-115) (5 Units)
The Mustangs are 2-2 against FBS opponents this season, winning against the recently-promoted Missouri State Bears (28-10) and despite their offense vanishing in the second half against Syracuse (31-18). Between those two games, their losses to Baylor (45-48) and TCU (24-35), and their Week 1 win against East Texas A&M (42-13), the Mustangs are 0-5 against the spread in 2025. Stanford isn't much better at 1-4 ATS, but they've played close games against unranked opponents, and they're a bigger underdog here than they were on the road against Virginia (+16.5) in Week 4. I don't think this is the game where SMU suddenly starts covering.
Over/Under Pick for Stanford vs. SMU
- Over 55.0 (-110) (4 Units)
This is the lowest total line the Mustangs have seen this season, and only the second sub-60 line after their 56.5 pregame total against Syracuse. Stanford hasn't seen a total line as high as 55.0 yet this season, but it's a line they would've covered against Virginia (20-48) or SJSU (30-29) in either of their last two games. The Cardinal offense has totaled 80 points, while their defense has allowed 97 points, over their last three games. If Gulbranson carries over any positive momentum after the bye week and Stanford keeps this game close, it isn't hard to see them hitting a 55-point line.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
