Stanford Cardinal vs. Virginia Cavaliers Prediction and Picks – September 20, 2025
The Virginia Cavaliers will host the Stanford Cardinal this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Stanford vs. Virginia prediction. Both teams have already dabbled in conference play this season – UVA sits at 2-1 with a loss to NC State, while Stanford is up to 1-2 after beating Boston College last week. Kickoff for this Week 4 meeting is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 20.
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Can Stanford continue upsetting in the ACC?
The Stanford Cardinal are 1-2 three years into one of the more curious seasons in the program's recent memory. Frank Reich was brought in as the team's interim head coach in March after the late firing of former head coach Troy Taylor, primarily due to his professional history with new Stanford general manager Andrew Luck. The offseason that followed was turbulent, but expectations were low after Taylor led the Cardinal to a 3-9 record in each of his two seasons. Stanford is only 1-2 after three games into the 2025 season, but they're coming off a 30-20 win over Boston College in a game they entered as 14-point underdogs.
It wasn't an overly dominant win, but Stanford took care of business and limited mistakes in the Boston College win. They only outgained the Eagles by ten yards and converted four fewer first downs, but the Cardinal avoided turnovers while the Eagles committed three. Sophomore back Micah Ford led the way on the ground, racking up 157 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. The defense forced a fumble each from BC quarterback Dylan Lonergan and back Turbo Richard, and Collin Wright intercepted Lonergan and ran it back for a touchdown near the end of the first half.
Stanford still has plenty of questions to answer ahead of their ACC schedule after how they opened the season. Senior quarterback Ben Gulbranson is completing only 53.6 percent of his passes for only 5.2 yards per attempt, with only one touchdown against three interceptions and five sacks taken. His performance against BC was a vast improvement from what he put on the field in the team's 3-27 loss to BYU, but this team won't go far without a better standard of play through the air.
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Can UVA finish the job against their next ACC opponent?
The Virginia Cavaliers are 2-1 heading into Week 4 of the college football season, with a close 31-35 road loss to NC State flanked by a 48-7 win over Coastal Carolina and a 55-16 win over William & Mary last week. Their offense hit 700 total yards in the win over the William & Mary Tribe, a record in the Cavaliers' program history and a significant accomplishment for fourth-year head coach Tony Elliott.
UVA dominated William & Mary throughout the game, converting 30 first downs while only allowing seven and going 9-of-16 on third down while holding the Tribe to 2-of-13. Starting quarterback Chandler Morring left the game after the first half, finishing with 149 yards and a touchdown while completing 13 of 19 passes. Harrison Waylee led the way on the ground, racking up 151 yards and three touchdowns on ten carries. Xavier Brown, J'Mari Taylor, and Kameron Courtney all ran in touchdowns before Waylee logged his first, and Noah Vaughn contributed 101 yards on eight carries. The unit had 379 yards and six touchdowns on 52 rushing attempts overall, averaging 7.3 yards per carry.
The Cavaliers will hope their positive momentum from last week carries into their game against the Cardinal. They're 0-1 in ACC play early this season after letting the NC State game get away from them – the Cavaliers led that game 24-14 at half before the Wolfpack scored touchdowns on three straight possessions in the third quarter.
Stanford vs Virginia Pick
Spread Pick for Stanford vs Virginia
- Virginia -15.5 (-110) (4 Units)
UVA has covered in each of the two games this season they've entered as multiple-score favorites, and they're staring down a similar -15.5 spread ahead of hosting Stanford. The Cardinal are coming off a 30-20 home win over Boston College that they entered as 14-point underdogs, but they're 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games and 0-2 against the spread in their two road games this season. It'll be a good day for Stanford if they can fly east and keep up with Virginia in this one, but I'd be more inclined to bet on the alternative.
Over/Under Pick for Stanford vs Virginia
- Over 49.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Over is 3-0 in UVA games this season, all of which have had higher pregame total lines than their upcoming meeting with Stanford. Both teams are coming off their best offensive games of the season; Virginia is coming off their best offensive day in program history. With the line here at only 49.5, I'd lean heavily toward the over.
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