TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Picks and Prediction - September 26, 2025
The Big 12 takes the stage on Friday night and we are here to make sure you are ready to make the best picks with our TCU vs. Arizona State predictions. The 24th ranked Horned Frogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) won at home against SMU last Saturday. 35-24, as -6.5 favorites. The Sun Devils (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) took down Baylor on the road last week, 27-24, as +3 underdogs. Kickoff from Mountain America Stadium in Tempe is scheduled for 9:00 EST and before you make any plays this weekend, remember, we have the strongest College Football Picks around!
TCU vaults into polls
With three straight wins to open the season, the Horned Frogs have joined the Top 25 rankings, thanks in large part to their offense. Last weekend, they found the end zone in all four quarters, twice in the fourth, while rattling off 517 total yards versus SMU. The defense allowed 384 total yards but also forced a turnover and had a pair of sacks.
The TCU scoring offense ranks 23rd in the country with 41.7 points per game and they are averaging 516 total yards per game, 14th best in the nation. The passing attack has produced 341.3 yards per game. Josh Hoover was 22-40 but still managed to throw for 379 yards and 5 TDs, with one interception. The junior QB has thrown for exactly 1000 yards, third most among Big 12 quarterbacks, and he has 11 TDs and 2 INTs. Hoover has been sacked just twice. That’s allowed him to find Jordan Dwyer 17 times for 257 yards and 2 TDs, and Eric McAlister 13 times for 320 yards and 3 TDs. The Horned Frogs running game is averaging 174.7 yards per game and three players have already rushed for more than 100 yards. Kevorian Barnes leads the team with 156 rushing yards, despite not playing last weekend.
Defensively, the team is giving up 19.7 points and 353 total yards per game. Against the rush, they’ve allowed 107 yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry with the longest rush against them going for just 17 yards. Versus the pass, they are last among Big 12 defenses, allowing 246 yards per game. They have been able to get to the opposing quarterback for eight sacks, and the Frogs have three interceptions and two defensive touchdowns. Eight players have recorded double digit tackles, with Jamel Johnson leading the team with 20 tackles and two interceptions, both coming in the win over SMU.
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Team notes
- McAlister was named the Walter Camp Football Foundation's National Offensive Player of the Week.
- Jamel Johnson was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week.
- Kyle Lemmermann and Nate McCashland are a combined 17-for-17 on PATs.
- TCU has scored in 410 straight games, the second-longest streak in the country.
Arizona State grinds it out on the road
In the wake of their week 2 loss, the Sun Devils have picked off back-to-back wins, digging deep to come up with a road win in Waco last weekend. The teams matched each other's scoring in each quarter, but in the third, the ASU defense kept Baylor scoreless. They held them to 357 yards and forced three turnovers from them. On offense, the Sun Devils had 400 yards and 26 first downs in the win.
After their first four games, the Sun Devils’ offense averaged 29.8 points and 406 total yards per game. The passing game ranks 14th among Big 12 teams, averaging 187 yards per game. Sam Leavitt was steady under center last weekend, going 22-32 for 221 yards and a TD while also rushing for 62 yards and a TD. On the year, the sophomore has thrown for 748 yards and 6 TDs while rushing for 219 yards and 4 TDs. His top target has been Jordyn Tyson who is third in the country with 31 catches and tied for second with 5 TDs to go with 357 receiving yards. Leavitt has dealt with a bit of pressure, being sacked eight times. Arizona State’s running game is third among Big 12 teams, averaging 219 yards per game. Raleek Brown is 18th in the country with 372 rushing yards on 56 carries.
Arizona State has had a bend-but-don’t-break defense thus far, allowing 20.5 points and 334 total yards per game. They’ve done well against the rush, allowing 95.3 yards per game, fourth best in the Big 12, while teams average 3.1 yards per carry against them. Opponents are passing for 238.8 yards per game against the Devils, the second worst mark in the conference. They’ve only picked off two passes, but ASU leads the Big 12 with 13 sacks, tied for 10th in the country. Jordan Crook leads the team with 33 tackles to go with two sacks and Keyshaun Ellott has a team-high three sacks to go with 30 tackles.
Team notes
- Jesus Gomez, who kicked the game-winning field goal last Saturday, was named Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week.
- Keyshaun Elliott has at least one tackle for a loss in all four games.
- Tyson is 72 yards shy of 2000 receiving yards for his career.
- Team had a combined 17 fourth quarter points through first three games before scoring 14 in the fourth against Baylor.
TCU vs. Arizona State Picks
Spread Pick for TCU vs. Arizona State
- Arizona State -2.5 (5 units)
These two programs have met just twice in the past, a home-and-home series in 1974 and 1975, both won by Arizona State. The Sun Devils are very much looking for an early statement win in conference play and this would fit the bill. Leavitt is a real problem for the TCU defense, who will have to choose between his arm or his legs. Even if they guess right, the Sun Devils rushing attack is multi-dimensional while also slowing down the opposition’s offense. Arizona State is going to do a good job of keeping the Horned Frogs' offense on the sidelines in this game. It is also expected to be raining, so if this turns into a full on ground game for both sides, favor is firmly in the corner of the hosts. A win here would likely put the Sun Devils back in the Top 25 rankings as well, so this is a big home game for ASU.
Take Arizona State giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. Arizona State
- Under 55.5 (5 units)
Both teams coming into this game have scored at least 20 points in each of their games thus far. The TCU offense has been much more prolific, twice eclipsing 40 while scoring no less than 35 points. This should be a tougher defensive matchup for the team and on the road, they are going to have to contend with a blackout crowd in Tempe. The Arizona State offense loves to grind things out with their ground game and are comfortable doing do. The 27 points scored in Waco last week is more likely what we’ll get from them on a weekly basis in conference play. The impending rain is going to force both sides to utilize the rush much more, which keeps the clock moving, but also both defenses are geared towards stopping the run.
Take the under.
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