TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Checking out the Big 12 action, we’ve gone ahead and broken down both sides before providing you with our TCU vs. Kansas State predictions for Saturday afternoon. The Horned Frogs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) were 35-21 winners over Colorado as -13.5 favorites at home last weekend. The Wildcats (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) were 35-34 losers at Baylor at +6 underdogs last week. Kickoff from Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan is scheduled for 3:30 EST. If you are struggling to pick winners, you've come to the right place. We have the strongest NCAAF Predictions.
TCU offense sparks success
After falling to Arizona State in their Big 12 opener, the Horned Frogs bounced back in their conference home opener last weekend. The offense scored at least 35 points for the fourth time this season and they had 369 yards and 23 first downs against Colorado. K-State’s defense allowed 343 total yards and 20 first downs in the win.
TCU has a top-five scoring offense in the Big 12, averaging 36.8 points per game. They’ve managed to pick up an average of 437.2 yards per game, sixth best in the conference and their 311.6 passing yards per game rank third in the Big 12. Josh Hoover had four passing touchdowns in the win over Colorado, the third time he’s had at least that many TD strikes. He is second in the conference with 1,517 passing yards and has 15 passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and four interceptions. Eric McAlister has 17 receptions and leads the team with 385 yards and five touchdowns. They rank last in the conference with 125.6 rushing yards per game.
The Horned Frogs scoring defense ranks 11th in the conference, allowing 21.4 points per game. They are allowing 380 total yards each week, with 130.8 yards per game coming against the run. Verus the pass, they rank 14th in the Big 12, allowing 249.2 yards per game and they have 14 sacks and six interceptions. Ten different players have played a role in at least one sack. Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the team with 40 tackles and three sacks.
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Game notes
- Hoover was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week following the win against Colorado.
- Namdi Obiazor was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week.
- Kyle Lemmerman took over place-kicking duties last week and went 6-6 on PATs and 2-2 on FGs.
- Bud Clark is tied for 16th in the nation with five pass deflections.
Kansas State suffers late collapse
The Wildcats are already halfway through their season and haven’t had a lot to show for it. Going into the fourth quarter against Baylor, they led 31-17 before being outscored, 18-3, down the stretch. The offense managed 506 yards and 31 first downs while the defense forced two turnovers and allowed 443 yards and 25 first downs.
Kansas State’s offense ranks 12th in the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 27.5 points per game. Their 370.5 total yards per game are the fourth fewest in the conference and their 143.3 rushing yards per game third fewest. Three players have over 200 yards rushing, including Dylan Edwards who is averaging six yards per carry. The Wildcats’ passing attack had been good for 227.2 yards per game. Avery Johnson had a season-high 344 passing yards against Baylor. The junior has 1,363 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, two interceptions, a team-high 209 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. Johnson has been sacked four times. His top target is Jayce Brown with 29 catches, 390 yards and three touchdowns.
On defense, they are giving up 26.8 points per game, the fourth-highest average against in the Big 12. They’ve yielded 376 total yards, including 167.7 per game via the rush. Against the pass, they are holding opponents to 208.3 yards per game, and they’ve recorded four interceptions and 13 sacks. Austin Romaine leads the team and is fourth in the conference with 45 tackles. Tobi Osunsanmi leads the team with four sacks, tied for third in the Big 12.
Game notes
- Jerand Bradley averages 15.2 yards per catch on 10 receptions.
- Luis Rodriguez is 19-19 on PATs and 8-9 on FGs with a long of 51 yards.
- Brown is averaging 34.7 yards per carry on three rushing attempts.
- Have led or been tied in the fourth quarter in three of their losses.
TCU vs. Kansas State Picks
Spread Pick for TCU vs. Kansas State
- Kansas State +1.5 (4 units)
This is the 19th game in the series and Kansas State has a 10-8 SU advantage over TCU. Their last meeting was in 2023, a 41-3 win by the Wildcats at home. TCU’s defense fares well against the run, but they’ll have their hands full with the multi-faceted run game of K-State. On the offensive end, the run game would be the Horned Frogs' best option of attack against a weak Wildcats running defense. However, TCU has the worst rushing game in the conference, so I don’t see them accomplishing a lot taking that route. Kansas State is 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games against the Horned Frogs.
Take the Wildcats getting the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. Kansas State
- Over 56 (5 units)
When they last met, the two teams tallied a combined 44 points and hit well under against a 60-point total. The offenses for both sides have had some solid efforts so far. Kansas State scored 34 points in each of its last two games, and it’s scored at least that much three times this season. TCU has scored 24 points in all of their game and at least 35 points in four of five. On the defensive side of the ball, both teams are in the bottom half of the conference in terms of points allowed. I’m expecting these two teams to have plenty of opportunities to score here.
Take the over.
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