Tennessee vs. Florida, Odds, Preview, Prediction and Picks for Saturday, November 22nd, 2025
Use Code SSWC One of the marquee games in Week 13 of the college football season comes in the SEC, as the #20 Tennessee Volunteers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) head south to take on the Florida Gators (3-7, 2-5 SEC). We’ve got you covered with our Tennessee vs. Florida prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
#20 Vols Beat up on the Aggies
Coach Josh Heupel has brought this Tennessee Volunteers squad back to relevance during his five-year tenure, going 44-18 (23-15 SEC) overall and making one College Football Playoff. That was last year, but the Vols were promptly dismissed in blowout fashion by Ohio State (42-17). This season’s squad is a solid 7-3 overall, which includes their 3-3 SEC mark. The three defeats came at the hands of #6 Georgia (44-41), #6 Alabama (37-20), and #18 Oklahoma (33-27). Tennessee bounced back last time out by beating up on visiting New Mexico State (42-9). From a sports betting perspective, the Volunteers are 4-6 ATS, and they’ve gone 7-3 to the over.
In terms of personnel, Joey Aguilar is leading the offense this season. The signal caller has amassed 2,941 yards on a 66.3% completion rate, adding 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His top target out wide is WR Chris Brazzell II, who has 873 yards and eight touchdowns on 52 receptions. RB DeSean Bishop has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 770 yards and 10 touchdowns on 119 carries (6.5 YPC).
- Tennessee came in at 20th in the latest CFP rankings, and they’re priced at +3000 to win the national title.
- Offensively, the Volunteers are scoring 40.3 points per game (third), while averaging 470.9 yards per week (ninth).
- Defensively, they are 97th in the country this year, conceding 30.2 points per game. They’re allowing 409.7 yards per contest, which is 93rd overall.
Gators Drop Third Straight Game
Meanwhile, it’s another down year for the Florida Gators football program. Things have gone so bad that the program decided to fire Billy Napier after seven games. This paved the way for Billy Gonzales to take the reins of the squad, and he’s 0-3 as the head coach. Florida is riding a three-game slide, dropping contests against #5 Georgia (24-20), Kentucky (38-7), and #7 Ole Miss (34-24), most recently. The Gators are just 4-6 ATS and they’ve gone 6-4 to the under.
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QB DJ Lagway remains under center for Florida, despite having plenty of turnover issues. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 1,980 yards on a 63.2% completion rate, adding 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Top WR Vernell Brown III (473 yards) is questionable for this game with an undisclosed injury. WR J. Michael Sturdivant (326 yards, 2 TD) will have to step up out wide if Brown is unable to go. On the ground, RB Jaden Baugh has been a workhorse, gaining 808 yards and six touchdowns on 164 totes (4.9 YPC).
- Florida’s offense has been abysmal this season, ranking 126th in scoring (17.0 PPG), while putting up just 327.1 yards per game (106th).
- On the defensive side, the Gators are mediocre this season, allowing 26.2 points per game (72nd). In terms of yardage, they’re 78th, conceding 398.1 yards per contest.
Tennessee vs. Florida Pick
Spread Pick for Tennessee vs. Florida
- Tennessee Volunteers -4.0 (-110) (5 units)
Florida is just 3-7 SU this season, and partially that’s due to them having the toughest schedule in the nation. They’ve lost a lot of games that they should have (aka where they were underdogs), but the one giant eyesore on their resume that stands out is the 38-7 blowout loss to Kentucky. This defeat proved to me that the Gators aren’t a “frisky, middling SEC team,” but more of just a bottom-tier squad in the conference.
With all of that being said, I’ll gladly lay the 4.0 points with the Vols in this spot, and I’m a bit surprised that this number isn’t out closer to -6.0 in favor of the visitors. The big edge here is Tennessee’s offense. This unit is elite, averaging 40.3 PPG against FBS-level competition. They should be able to out-pace the Gators over a 60-minute timeframe, especially when you factor in Florida’s turnover issues. The Gators are 122nd in giveaways per game (1.9). As long as the Volunteers take care of the ball, they should have no issues stretching out a win of 4+ points with their powerful offense.
Over/Under Pick for Tennessee vs. Florida
- Under 57.5 (-105) (5 units)
There should be some scoring in this game since Tennessee’s defense is a liability, but we do have to draw the line somewhere. I’m taking the under at this inflated number of 57.5 points. For starters, I do not trust Florida’s offense to carry their weight in getting this game over the total. The Gators have scored 24 points or fewer in eight of their last nine games. This has led to the under cashing at a rate of 10-4 in Florida’s last 14 games.
On the other hand, Florida’s defense is definitely its strength this season. With their home crowd behind them, the Gators may be able to make the necessary stops to keep this game under. At home, Florida is allowing only 20.0 PPG, compared to conceding 26.2 PPG overall. I think the Vols will pull away at the end for the cover, but I also expect to stay under this lofty line of 57.5 points. I’ll predict a 27-17 final in favor of Tennessee.
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