Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 27th, 2025
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0, 0-0 SEC) are off to a perfect start in 2025, but they’ll have their biggest test of the year on Saturday when they host the #15 Tennessee Volunteers (3-1, 0-1 SEC). We’ve got you covered with our Tennessee vs. Mississippi State prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 ET from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
#15 Volunteers Bounce Back, Beat Blazers
Coach Josh Heupel is back for his fifth season as the lead man of the Tennessee Volunteers, and he has gone 40-16 (20-13 SEC) during his tenure at Rocky Top. The school made its first CFP appearance last season and went 10-3 (6-2 SEC) overall. As for the new campaign, the Vols are 3-1 out of the gate, but sit at 0-1 in conference play after coughing up a 44-41 home game against #6 Georgia in week 3. Their wins are against Syracuse (45-26), ETSU (72-17), and UAB (56-24), most recently.
Quarterback Joey Aguilar has taken the reins of the offense this season, and he has looked impressive in 2025. The senior transfer from App State has accumulated 1,124 passing yards on a 66.7% completion rate, adding 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. His top target is WR Chris Brazzell II, who has 426 yards and six touchdowns on 25 catches. RB Star Thomas leads the rushing attack with 272 yards and four touchdowns on 42 carries (6.5 YPC).
- The Volunteers have an updated win total of 8.5 (-130/+100) and they’re priced at +2500 to win the conference title.
- Tennessee’s offense has been dynamic this season, ranking seventh in scoring (47.3 PPG), while putting up 499.7 yards per game (12th).
- On the defensive side, the Volunteers are 98th this season, allowing 31.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 99th, conceding 424.3 yards per contest.
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Bulldogs Improve to 4-0
Meanwhile, the expectations weren’t very high for Coach Jeff Lebby and his Mississippi State Bulldogs this season. They were projected to only win 3.5 games this year, and the Bulldogs have already eclipsed that mark. They’re a perfect 4-0 out of the gate, taking down Southern Miss (34-17), #12 Arizona State (24-20), Alcorn State (63-0), and Northern Illinois (38-10), most recently. Mississippi State has yet to play a conference game, so it’ll finish with eight consecutive SEC opponents.
QB Blake Shapen is the man under center for the Bulldogs this season, and he has been a serviceable option under second-year coordinator Coleman Hutzler. Shapen has thrown for 884 yards on a 67.0% completion rate, logging seven touchdowns and two picks. RB Fluff Bothwell leads the ground game with 271 yards and four touchdowns on 47 totes (5.8 YPC). WRs Brenen Thompson (291 yards, 3 TD) and Anthony Evans III (290 yards, 2 TD) are the top receivers this season.
- Mississippi State’s current win total sits at 5.5 (+120/-155), and they’re still a +20000 longshot to win the SEC.
- Offensively, the Bulldogs are scoring 32.0 points per game (36th), while averaging 420.7 yards per week (41st).
- Defensively, they are 18th in the country this year, conceding 15.7 points per game. They’re allowing 300.3 yards per contest, which is 28th.
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Pick
Spread Pick for Tennessee vs. Mississippi State
- Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-108) (5 units)
This is a great sell-high spot on Mississippi State. They’ve cruised past three cream puffs and barely escaped against a revamped Arizona State team on a last-minute fluke play. Mississippi State is due for regression, and there’s no better team to bring them back down to earth than Tennessee.
These teams met last year, and it was the Vols who dismantled the Bulldogs 33-14 in Knoxville. Tennessee is now 5-2 ATS in its last seven head-to-head games against Mississippi State. This Vols offense is just too explosive for the Bulldogs to keep pace. They’ve scored 41+ points in each game this season, and I’m willing to wager that this Blake Shapen-led offense won’t be able to keep up. Give me the Vols to win this game by 10+ points at least.
Over/Under Pick for Tennessee vs. Mississippi State
- Over 63.5 (-110) (5 units)
Tennessee’s offense has been clicking this year. They’re scoring 47.3 points per game against FBS-level competition, while averaging 499.7 yards per game. The over is now 8-0 in Tennessee’s last eight games. They have a veteran quarterback at the helm and an offensive-minded head coach, so I anticipate the Vols leading the way in getting this final score over the lofty total.
On the flip side, I do expect to see Mississippi State hit the 20-point mark in this game. First off, they’ve done so in all four games this year, and are averaging 32.0 points per game against FBS-level opponents. They’ll also get a nice boost since they’re in front of their home crowd, which should allow for Shapen to settle in and perform well. He boasts a 6/1 TD/INT ratio at home this year. The Vols have given up 24+ points three times this season, so clearly they’re not impenetrable. I’m taking the over.
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