Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Prediction and Picks - November 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC Friday evening SEC College football action, and we have a Texas A&M vs Texas prediction locked and loaded for you. The Aggies come in off a 48-0 home win over Samford, which moved them to 11-0 on the year. Texas is now at 8-3 on the year after a 52-37 loss to Georgia on the road. Can the Aggies keep their perfect season going? Read on to see our Texas A&M vs Texas prediction.
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Aggies Crush Samford At Home
Texas A&M comes into this showdown at 11-0, and their most recent game was a 48-0 rout of Samford on November 22. Marcel Reed threw three touchdown passes, Rueben Owens II added 92 rushing yards and a score, and the Aggies’ defense suffocated Samford from start to finish. It was the kind of performance you expect from a team chasing perfection, with the offense piling up nearly 500 yards while the defense allowed barely 200. That win kept A&M firmly in the SEC driver’s seat and ensured they remain in the thick of the College Football Playoff picture heading into Thanksgiving weekend.
The Aggies’ offense has been one of the most balanced and explosive in the country. They average 465.1 yards per game, split between 269.2 passing yards and 195.9 rushing yards, and rank 10th nationally in scoring at 38.1 points per game. Reed has thrown for 2,752 yards and 25 touchdowns, spreading the ball to KC Concepcion (829 yards, 9 TDs) and Micah Craver (781 yards, 4 TDs). Owens and Reed have combined for nearly 1,000 rushing yards, giving A&M a dual‑threat attack that can grind out drives or strike quickly. First downs come in bunches — over 23 per game — and the Aggies have been disciplined enough to keep turnovers manageable at just 1.3 per game.
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Defensively, A&M has been just as impressive, holding opponents to 301.9 yards per game and 21.5 points per contest, ranking 39th nationally in scoring defense. They’ve been particularly stingy against the pass, allowing only 183.1 yards per game, while the run defense has limited opponents to 118.8 yards per game. The Aggies’ ability to control both lines of scrimmage has been the difference, with a net yardage margin of over +163 per game. That balance — explosive offense paired with a disciplined, efficient defense — is why A&M enters this rivalry game not only unbeaten but looking every bit like a team built to make a deep postseason run.
Texas Bounces Back Against Arkansas
Texas sits at 8-3 overall and 5-2 in SEC play, coming off a 52-37 win over Arkansas on November 22 in Austin. Arch Manning threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns, adding a rushing score to cap off a career night. Parker Livingstone stretched the field with a 104-yard performance, while Quintrevion Wisner chipped in 67 rushing yards. The Longhorns piled up over 500 yards of offense, but the defense gave up 188 rushing yards, a reminder of their vulnerability against physical fronts. That win kept Texas in the top tier of the SEC standings, though they’ll need help to reach a New Year’s Six bowl.
The Longhorns’ offense has been steady, averaging 381.5 yards per game and 29.8 points per contest, ranking 50th nationally in scoring. Manning has thrown for 2,763 yards and 23 touchdowns, leading a passing attack that averages 259.9 yards per game. Ryan Wingo (736 yards, 6 TDs) and Livingstone (472 yards, 6 TDs) headline a receiving corps that can stretch defenses vertically. The run game has been less consistent, producing just 121.6 yards per game, but Wisner and CJ Baxter Jr. have shown flashes. Texas averages nearly 18.5 first downs per game, and their ability to sustain drives through the air has been the backbone of their success.
Defensively, Texas has been solid overall, allowing just 335.5 yards per game and 20 points per contest, which ranks 25th nationally in scoring defense. The strength has been against the run, where they give up only 92.7 yards per game, but the secondary has been leaky, surrendering 242.8 passing yards per game. The Longhorns have forced 11 turnovers, but their margin is slim, and they’ll need to tighten coverage against A&M’s balanced attack. With no path to the SEC title game, Texas is playing spoiler, aiming to derail the Aggies’ perfect season while boosting their own bowl positioning. Manning’s arm and the defense’s ability to slow the run will be critical if they want to pull off the upset in this rivalry clash.
Texas A&M vs Texas Pick
Texas A&M vs Texas Spread Pick
- Texas +2.5 (4 Units)
Taking Texas at +2.5 has real appeal because Arch Manning has elevated the Longhorns’ offense into a unit capable of trading scores with anyone. Texas averages nearly 260 passing yards per game and has multiple vertical threats in Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone, both of whom can stretch defenses. While the run game has been inconsistent, Manning’s ability to extend plays and add rushing touchdowns gives them balance. Getting points in a rivalry game where emotions run high is valuable, especially with Texas averaging almost 30 points per contest and showing they can move the ball against quality opponents.
Defensively, Texas matches up better than people think. The Longhorns allow just 20 points per game, ranking 25th nationally, and their front seven has been stout against the run, holding opponents to under 93 rushing yards per game. That strength directly counters Texas A&M’s balanced attack, forcing Marcel Reed to lean more heavily on the passing game. Rivalry games often tighten up, and with Texas’ defense capable of limiting explosive runs while Manning keeps the offense humming, the Longhorns have a legitimate chance to keep this close. With the spread at +2.5, Texas doesn’t need to win outright—they just need to stay within a field goal, and their combination of quarterback play and defensive toughness makes that a realistic outcome.
Texas A&M vs Texas Over/Under Pick
- Over 52.5 (5 Units)
The Over 52.5 looks like a strong angle because both offenses have the firepower to push this game past the number. Texas A&M averages nearly 38 points per game with a balanced attack that racks up over 465 yards per contest, while Texas scores just under 30 points per game and leans on Arch Manning’s arm to generate explosive plays through the air. The Aggies’ defense has been solid, but rivalry games tend to open up, and Texas’ passing game can exploit their secondary for big gains. On the flip side, A&M’s rushing and passing balance should consistently move the chains against a Longhorns defense that has been vulnerable against the pass. With both teams capable of quick strikes and neither likely to play conservatively in a rivalry this heated, the total sets up to clear 52.5.
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